Trade Progress, Satisfied Fed, BOE’s Brexit Headache: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here's the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your week started:

• The U.S. and China signaled further progress on Monday toward a breakthrough in trade talks that could culminate in a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later this month
• Federal Reserve policy makers are satisfied with the stance of monetary policy even if Trump isn't
  • Still, an enduring U.S. expansion puts Trump on course to win re-election in 2020, according to economic models with a track record of predicting who wins the White House
• The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Report this week will unveil more than just a new name for its predictions
  • Meanwhile, the early U.K. election in December is creating confusion in the Treasury's search for a new BOE governor
  • Staying in the U.K., government spending is heading for a return to levels not seen for four decades regardless of who triumphs in the upcoming election, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank
  • When Mario Draghi ended his term as European Central Bank president last week with a call for government policies to be “mutually aligned” with those of his institution, the message came with an unspoken caveat -- it might not be enough
    • The Christine Lagarde-era at the ECB is underway and the new president gets her first chance to frame her outlook for the economy and monetary policy publicly on Monday
    • As the world's central banks loosen monetary policy to support growth and rekindle inflation, central banks in eastern Europe reckon the best option for now is to do nothing
      • Almost two years after Latvia's central-bank governor was detained in a bribery probe, he's getting the chance to prove his innocence in the courtroom
      • Australia's monetary policy easing has driven interest rates down to levels where they could be doing more harm than good for the economy

      To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

      To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

      ©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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