Weidmann’s Dream of Top ECB Job Could Be Wrecked by Dutchman

(Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel's endorsement of Dutch Socialist Frans Timmermans as the next European Commission chief may be bad news for her former economic adviser, Jens Weidmann, who had hoped to succeed Mario Draghi at the helm of the European Central Bank.

In a surprise move at the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Japan, Merkel indicated that Timmermans and Manfred Weber were the only real candidates left in the race to lead the European Union's executive arm. That has major implications for the other top post, which has never been held by a German.

Read our blow-by-blow account of the action at the special EU summit

The ECB presidency won't be decided Sunday night at the EU summit in Brussels, a high-ranking German official said, who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential. That decision will be postponed until September in an attempt to move it away from the highly political nominations for the commission and council presidencies.

At stake is oversight of monetary policy for the euro area and regulation of the vast single market stretching from the Arctic circle to the Mediterranean. Whoever takes over from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Draghi will navigate a world beset by trade tensions at a time when Europe's economy remains hooked on stimulus.

High Stakes

It's the first time both jobs are coming up at once and a lot depends on the behind-the-scenes horsetrading and power dynamics between the leaders of the two biggest economies in the euro, France and Germany. Not to mention what kind of national claim they will make on the most influential positions.

Timmermans, who hails from the Netherlands, has the backing of French President Emmanuel Macron and more votes supporting him in the European parliament, so the chances are high that EU leaders will nominate him at the special summit.

Merkel has made clear that Weber, who belongs to her center-right political family, would remain "part of the solution." That means he would get a high-ranking job in Brussels, possibly being No. 2 at the commission.

A nomination for commission president must be supported by at least 72% of EU governments representing at least 65% of the bloc's population.

All that could leave Bundesbank President Weidmann empty-handed. In a bid to make himself more palatable, Weidmann unexpectedly shifted his policy view on Draghi's crisis-fighting program earlier this month and economists now consider him the favorite, according to a Bloomberg survey published on Friday.

But Merkel has stressed in the past that the ECB presidency would be decided in light of the other EU big jobs. And while it may appear on the face of it that Germany has a claim to at least one of the top two, it's also likely that France will feel it's owed something for not taking the commission for itself and giving Weber a compensation prize.

To contact the reporter on this story: Arne Delfs in Osaka at adelfs@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ben Sills at bsills@bloomberg.net, Flavia Krause-Jackson, Matthew G. Miller

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