Space Data Shows China’s Economic Recovery From Virus

(Bloomberg) -- Rising Chinese pollution levels measured from space are showing a gradual but uneven industrial pickup after the economic slowdown caused by the nation's fight to contain the deadly novel coronavirus.

Though the measure of nitrogen dioxide in China's atmosphere has risen nearly 50% from Feb. 17, it's still roughly 20% below the equivalent period last year, according an analysis from the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which used satellite data from NASA.

The data offers important clues to the health of the world's second-largest economy. The country's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index plunged to a record low in February, underscoring the impact from the Covid-19 outbreak, which has pummeled both consumption and production.

Read More: Slow But Steady: China Fights to Get Economy Back to Work

Provincial-level data can offer insights into specific industries, which often cluster by region. In the northern province of Hebei, which is China's top steel-making area, NO2 levels have risen above the equivalent period last year, suggesting a partial recovery.

In the manufacturing hub of Guangdong, a province that as of Wednesday had the most coronavirus infections after Hubei province where the disease began, pollution briefly outpaced levels in 2017 and 2019 before falling below by late February.

In Shanxi, one of China's top coal-producing provinces, NO2 levels have nearly caught up to last year. The province was among several that have lowered their coronavirus emergency response level.

Pollution data may also provide some clarity on activity in eastern Zhejiang, where concerns have emerged over data reliability. At least three cities there have given local factories power-consumption targets because they're using the data to show a resurgence in production, according to people familiar with the matter. That's prompted some businesses to run machinery even as their plants remain empty, the people said.

Read More: China's Push to Jump-Start Economy Revives Fake Data Worries

A provincial newspaper, the Taizhou Daily, criticized local officials on Saturday for narrowly focusing on power usage, arguing that hitting the targets doesn't equate to economic growth. (The link to the article on the paper's website was no longer working by Sunday.)

Daily coal consumption at coastal plants of six major power groups was at 476,800 tons as of March 4, the highest since Jan. 22, before the holiday began, according to data from the China Coal Transport and Distribution Association.

--With assistance from Karoline Kan and James Mayger.

To contact the reporter on this story: Aaron Clark in Tokyo at aclark27@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Ramsey Al-Rikabi at ralrikabi@bloomberg.net, James Mayger

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