Increased Chances Of El Nino Is A Concern For Indian Monsoon, Says Skymet

Chances of formation of an El Nino have gone up to 60 percent from a previously stated 50 percent, said Indian private weather forecaster Skymet, leading to concerns of a below normal monsoon.

“The projection which was seen earlier based on the January data, there is a bit of change coming to that which was not expected to come up at this point of time,” GP Sharma, vice president of meteorology at Skymet, told BloombergQuint in an interaction. "It looks like the El Nino is progressing."

The anomalies in the Pacific ocean which are responsible for monsoon are increasingly well defined, he said. “It's not just the surface temperature but also the sub-surface temperature is heating up which is an indication towards the increasing strength of the El Nino.”

Sharma pointed out that a progressing El Nino could be a concern for Indian monsoons. The phenomenon is inversely related with a good rainfall season as warming of the Pacific Ocean results in weakening of the southwest monsoon winds. Therefore, moisture and heat content gets limited and results in reduction and uneven distribution of rainfall across the Indian sub-continent.

The six most prominent droughts in India since 1871 have been triggered by El Nino, including the ones that occurred in 2002 and 2009, according to Skymet's website.

To be sure, the complete forecast will only be released in the first week of April.

The monsoon is considered ‘normal' if the average rainfall is between 96 and 104 percent of the long-period average. Anything less than 90 percent is termed a ‘deficient' monsoon, while 90-96 percent is considered ‘below normal'. An average between 104 to 110 is stated ‘above normal' and anything beyond 110 is referred to as ‘excess'.

The monsoon was below normal last year after two successive years of normal rains. A good monsoon, which waters more than half of India's farmland, is crucial to boost consumption and the economy. Monsoon rain levels in India and their distribution largely determine crop output and are among the most important factors in guiding retail food inflation.