China Will Overtake the U.S. in Less Than 15 Years, HSBC Says

(Bloomberg) -- China is on course to be the world's biggest economy by 2030, according to analysis that challenges Donald Trump's claim that the U.S. is not about to be overtaken.

The forecast was made by economists at HSBC Holdings Plc in a new study of 75 nations published on Tuesday. It also saw the Chinese as remaining the single biggest contributor to global growth over the next decade.

The projections suggest China's gross domestic product will stand at $26 trillion in 2030, up from $14.1 trillion today. The U.S. meanwhile will see its GDP rise more slowly to $25.2 trillion from $20.4 trillion.

Just last month, Trump said that China was no longer on track to surpass the U.S. “in a very short period of time.” The HSBC prediction does though gel with that of the International Monetary Fund, which said in July that China could become the world's largest economy by 2030.

Among HSBC's other estimates, by 2030:

• India will pass Japan and Germany to become the third-largest economy
• Global output could be 40 percent higher than in 2017 as world growth of just below 3 percent looks sustainable
• About 70 percent of global expansion will be from emerging markets
• Austria and Norway will fall out of the top 30 due in part to their small, ageing populations
• Bangladesh will rise 16 positions to 26, while the Philippines will climb 11 slots to 27
• Africa will have more people of working age than China

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Andrew Atkinson, David Goodman

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