Hotels, College Hoops Signal No U.S. Virus Hit Yet, Goldman Says

(Bloomberg) -- Weekly measures of U.S. movie-ticket sales, hotel occupancy rates, and sporting event attendance “show no sign yet” that virus fears have led to consumption cutbacks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The firm said its Coronavirus Consumer Activity Tracker collects higher-frequency data on spending and prices for types of consumption that would be hit the hardest by the outbreak.

“While activity in some of these categories declined last week, our index remained at a fairly high level through the end of February,” economist Joseph Briggs wrote in a report Thursday. Government data probably won't offer much clarity until the March retail sales report is released in mid-April, he said.

The activity tracker, updated through Feb. 22-29, showed that activity in virus-exposed categories held steady as weaker readings for Broadway attendance, movie-ticket sales, and available airline seat miles were offset by increases in hotel occupancy rates, retail sales, and college basketball attendance. This suggests that Americans so far aren't skipping mass gatherings on virus fears, Briggs wrote.

Such measures are promising for consumption, the biggest part of the world's largest economy, as they confront an intensifying challenge from the virus, but they're still preliminary readings at a time of enormous uncertainty. Growth was holding up as the first signs the virus impact started showing in tourism and supply chains, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed Wednesday, based on reports through Feb. 24.

“Our baseline U.S. forecast incorporates a direct drag from domestic coronavirus outbreaks on consumer spending,” Briggs said. “The size of this drag is highly uncertain, however, since historical data provides limited insight into when and by how much consumers will pull back on spending in response to a new virus.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in Washington at jkearns3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Scott Lanman at slanman@bloomberg.net, Vince Golle

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