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Written by
Sam Unsted
Written by

Sam Unsted

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(Bloomberg) --

Good morning. A truce between the U.S. and China was reached, oil and gold prices are going in different directions and a no-deal Brexit is at the center of campaigning to be the U.K.'s new prime minister. Here's what's moving markets.

‘Winning'

The temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China that markets were hoping for materialized over the weekend, even if details of what kind of standstill has been agreed are scant. Larry Kudlow, the White House economic adviser, said as much. President Donald Trump, at least, says the U.S. is “winning'' the battle and the latest set of weak Chinese factory data indicates the need for a lasting trade truce for the world's second-biggest economy. For investors, a sigh of relief is likely to reverberate through markets as even if there is still little visibility -- at least the talks are continuing.

Playing the Truce

So what does the truce mean for markets? One favored trade, namely shorting the U.S. dollar, is likely to remain in vogue because if a full-fledged trade deal does eventually get done, it could damage the dollar's safe haven appeal. Traders are also likely to re-assess the path of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve as the confirmation that talks will continue should ultimately help to reduce market pricing for a cut at the July meeting. Economists, however, aren't buying the rally and the prospect that the situation could worsen again may limit any changes to bets on the rate path.

Crude Surge

OPEC+ is on the verge of extending its oil output cuts into the first quarter of 2020, putting even more focus on the gathering of the world's biggest oil producers. Output for OPEC members declined in June, indicating the way the cartel's plans are pointing. Oil prices are surging on the cuts and the trade detente. Beyond crude, keep watching the price of iron ore, already at a five-year high. Australia's iron ore output is set to decline for the first time in 18 years, so combined with the weak Chinese economic data and a plunging gold price, it's likely to be an active day for mining shares.

Leaving

The two contenders to be the U.K.'s next prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, are at pains to stress they are both happy to bring the country out of the European Union on October 31 without a deal in place. Theresa May, the woman one of them will replace, isn't going quietly judging by her G-20 performance. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing some resistance to her plans for the top EU jobs, promising that Brexit will not be the only topic wrangled over in Brussels this summer.

Coming Up...

The trade truce is having the exact impact one might have anticipated, with stocks in Asia surging and European futures suggesting Europe will open very firmly in the green. The ban on trading of Swiss stocks in the EU will go into effect on Monday, taking the local exchange into uncharted territory. The OPEC meeting in Vienna will be closely scrutinized, Finland will take over the presidency of the European Union and the Wimbledon tennis tournament will get started.