China Developers Confront a $197 Billion Challenge in January

(Bloomberg) -- China's property developers have mounting bills to pay in January and shrinking options to raise necessary funds.

The industry will need to find at least $197 billion to cover maturing bonds, coupons, trust products and deferred wages to millions of migrant workers, according to Bloomberg calculations and analyst estimates. Beijing has urged builders like China Evergrande Group to meet payrolls by month-end in order to avoid the risk of social unrest.

Policy for the property market remains tight even after China in December pivoted toward supporting economic growth. Future focus is likely to be on ensuring homes are delivered, and the country's central bank is encouraging financial firms to help acquisition activity in the real estate sector. Bond payments for stressed firms are larger this month than November and December combined.

Calculations of January's bill include:

Worker wages: 1.1 trillion yuan ($173 billion), estimate according to Nomura Holdings Inc. economists
Dollar bonds: $6.04 billion in principal payments and $1.7 billion in coupons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
Onshore notes: 37.2 billion yuan in principal payments and 6.6 billion yuan in coupons, Bloomberg-compiled data show
Trust products: 60.2 billion yuan come due, according to data tracker Use Trust
There's also interest payments on local and offshore bonds, bills to suppliers and potential hidden debt

For smaller or struggling firms it's unclear where the cash will come from. Yields have been so elevated offshore that the dollar bond market remains effectively shut for refinancing, a situation that HSBC Holdings Plc analysts predict will continue for at least another six months. Only a handful of the strongest private-sector builders have recently tapped the interbank credit market onshore, while low stock valuations limit the scope for equity financing.

Generating higher revenue from a weakening property market remains a challenge. Also, companies like Evergrande have struggled to sell non-core assets.

Bond Bills for Stressed Developers - $5.6 billion

For builders whose debt had the worst 2021 returns in a Bloomberg index of China high-yield dollar bonds, below is a week-by-week calendar for interest and principal payments due on local and offshore notes. Some payments may have grace periods unless otherwise stated.

Note: While the list excludes firms which defaulted last year, it includes Evergrande and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. The developers have said they are in negotiations with bondholders but are yet to clarify their plans for future payments.

Evergrande, Kaisa - $1.66 billion including puttable bond

Evergrande 4.5 billion yuan note due 2023 is puttable Jan. 8; also first deadline for 314.1 million yuan coupon
Kaisa $26.25 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 15
Evergrande $57.5 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 22
Evergrande $60 million coupon on note due 2024, first deadline Jan. 22
Kaisa $8.65 million coupon on note due July, first deadline Jan. 22
Kaisa $40.8 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 23
Kaisa $24.9 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 23
Evergrande unit Scenery Journey $115 million coupon on note due October, first deadline Jan. 24
Scenery Journey $120 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 24
Evergrande $50.4 million coupon on note due 2023, grace period ends Jan. 27
Evergrande $204.8 million coupon on note due 2025, grace period ends Jan. 27
Kaisa $105.35 million coupon on note due 2024, grace period ends Jan. 29
Kaisa $48.75 million coupon on note due 2022, grace period ends Jan. 29
Kaisa $40.25 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 30

Week 1 (Jan. 1-7) - $234 million

Agile $14.4 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 2
Zhenro 57.5 million yuan coupon on note due June, first deadline Jan. 2 (spokesperson said payment will be made on time)
Logan $61.8 million note due Jan. 3, plus $1.78 million in interest
Guangzhou R&F 297.5 million yuan coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 3
Shimao $23.75 million coupon on note due July, first deadline Jan. 3
Redco 31.8 million yuan coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 6
Logan $7.05 million coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 6
Seazen 310 million yuan note due Jan. 7, plus 17.05 million yuan in interest
Zhenro $13 million coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 7

Week 2 (Jan. 8-14) - $1.42 billion

Times China $18.6 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 8
Shenzhen Logan 48 million yuan coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 8
Shanghai Shimao 20.6 million yuan coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 9
Sunac $19.5 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 9
Sunac $21 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 9
Sunac $24.1 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 10
KWG $250 million note due Jan. 11, plus $7.5 million in interest
Yango Justice $24.7 million note due Jan. 11, plus $650,000 in interest
Shimao $15 million coupon on note due 2031, first deadline Jan. 11
Guangzhou R&F unit Easy Tactic $18.3 million coupon on note due 2024, first deadline Jan. 11
Shanghai Powerlong 66 million yuan coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 11
Logan $9.56 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 12
Easy Tactic $725 million note due Jan. 13, plus $20.8 million in interest (extension proposed)
Zhenro unit ZhenAn Glory $100 million note due Jan. 13, plus $2.6 million in interest
Shimao $6.9 million coupon on note due 2030 first deadline Jan. 13
Greentown $8.48 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 13
Greentown 98 million yuan coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 13
Logan $6.75 million coupon on note due 2028, first deadline Jan. 13
Redsun $12.8 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 13
Seazen Group $6.68 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 13
KWG $11.1 million coupon on note due 2027, first deadline Jan. 13
Yuzhou $23.8 million coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 13
Yuzhou $17.8 million coupon on note due 2027, first deadline Jan. 13
Central China $9.75 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 14
Logan $8.63 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 14
Times China $10.1 million coupon on note due 2027, first deadline Jan. 14

Week 3 (Jan. 15-21) - $831 million

Shanghai Shimao 2 billion yuan note due Jan. 15, plus 93 million yuan in interest
Shimao $28 million coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 15
Yango Justice $13.9 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 15
Yango Justice $13.4 million coupon on note due 2024, first deadline Jan. 15
Seazen unit New Metro Global $6.94 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 15
Shimao $13 million coupon on note due 2027, first deadline Jan. 16
Logan $13 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 16
Redsun $22.1 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 16
Times China $16.9 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 16
Central China $7.25 million coupon on note due 2024, first deadline Jan. 16
Shanghai Shimao 22.5 million yuan coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 19
Sunac 107.4 million yuan coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 19
China Aoyuan $188 million note due Jan. 20, plus $3.93 million in interest
Shanghai Powerlong has said it will pay 930 million yuan Jan 20. to meet put option on 2025 note; 62 million yuan coupon also due

Week 4 (Jan. 22-31) - $1.46 billion

Ronshine $18.6 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 22
Yango Group 69 million yuan coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 22
Sunac 37.5 million yuan coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 22
Greentown 19.9 million yuan coupon on note due 2024, first deadline Jan. 22
China Aoyuan $500 million note due Jan. 23, plus $21.25 million in interest
Yuzhou $242.1 million note due Jan. 23, plus $10.4 million in interest
Powerlong $14.6 million coupon on note due 2023, first deadline Jan. 23
Greentown has said it'll pay 495 million yuan on Jan. 24 to meet put option on 2024 note
Yuzhou $347.45 million note due Jan. 25, plus $10.4 million in interest
Ronshine $10.65 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 25
Powerlong HK$1 billion ($128.2 million) note due Jan. 26, plus HK$30 million in interest
Powerlong $4 million coupon on note due July, first deadline Jan. 26
Sunac $19.5 million coupon on note due 2026, first deadline Jan. 26
Easy Tactic $13.1 million coupon on note due July, first deadline Jan. 28
Yango Group 40.1 million yuan coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 29
Shimao $13 million coupon on note due 2025, first deadline Jan. 30