Big Reads on Economics: Trade Swings Between War and Peace

(Bloomberg) --

Investors spent another week being whipsawed over the outlook for the trade war as President Donald Trump's Dec. 15 deadline for new tariffs on China looms.

The U.S. crackdown on international commerce even went global again as Trump directed fresh ire at Argentina, Brazil and France -- although Mexico weighed a plan to speed implementation of the new Nafta.

This topic and others are among the collection of this week's analysis, scoops and enterprise from Bloomberg Economics:

• U.S., China Move Closer to Trade Deal Despite Harsh Rhetoric
• Terms of Trade: Tariff Man Returns as China Timeline Grows Murky
• Mexico Weighs U.S. Plan to Strip Drugs Provision From USMCA
• Trump Ties Brazil, Argentina Steel Tariffs to U.S. Farm Woes

Trump began the week signaling he was sanguine about the lack of a trade deal. That spooked markets which then found some relief after Jenny Leonard and Niu Shuping reported the U.S. and China were actually moving closer to an agreement. Jenny and Eric Martin also broke the news that Mexico was considering signing on to a U.S. plan to remove a provision for certain drugs from the rewired Nafta.

• What Lagarde's ECB Review Can Tackle, From Inflation to Climate
• ECB Resolve on Negative Interest Rates Wanes Under Lagarde
• Pimco Joins Chorus of Negative Rate Detractors as Backlash Grows
• ECB Sub-Zero Rate Policy Faces Pushback From Finance Ministers

Christine Lagarde's eight-year presidency at the European Central Bank is under way. Yuko Takeo and Piotr Skolimowski outline what the new era may entail, while Craig Stirling reported how the ECB's taste for negative interest rates may be waning amid criticisms from investors. Birgit Jennen, Viktoria Dendrinou and Patrick Donahue showed governments aren't too happy with life below zero either.

• The Way Out for Global Economy Hooked on Debt? More Debt
• Don't Count on Merkel's Standoff Leading to German Stimulus Soon
• Macron's Reform Blitz Leaves Companies Waiting for Workers

If central banks can't ride to the rescue of slow economies, can governments? Don't bet on it. Enda Curran highlighted how the world is wallowing in debt. Birgit Jennen and Catherine Bosley said Germany is unlikely to head to the stimulus pumps any time soon. William Horobin took a look at the French economy.

• Rich-World Problem of Lowflation Has Arrived in Emerging Markets
• What Argentina's Economic Crisis Means for Policy, in 7 Charts
• Brazil Struggles to Keep Reform Momentum With Clock Ticking
• The State of South Africa's Faltering Economy in Charts

Emerging markets are also feeling some pain, mainly political in nature. Anya Andrianova reported how lowflation has arrived in such economies. Scott Squires used charts to demonstrate Argentina's challenges as a new president takes office, and Rene Vollgraaff took a look at South Africa. Martha Beck and Simone Iglesias listed the challenges for Brazil's reform-minded government.

• The Death of the U.K. High Street Hits Women Workers Hardest
• Labour Hits Past and Present Foes in Reversing Thatcher Reforms
• More Than Just Brexit (Podcast)

The U.K. election is timed for next Thursday. Lucy Meakin took to the High Street to reveal how women are working the hardest, while David Goodman provided a historical sweep of the heated debate over nationalization.

• Free-Tuition Experiment Exposes Risks for Low-Income Students

Reade Pickert traveled to Tennessee to see how a program that offers free tuition was working out as next year's presidential election nears.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss, Craig Stirling

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