(Bloomberg) -- As Samsung Electronics Co. prepares to roll out its flagship Galaxy S9 smartphone globally, the market doesn't seem to be asking for too much: Just rake in the same mobile profits as last year.
Analysts estimate Samsung will ship between 37 million and 40 million Galaxy S9 series phones in 2018, which will put sales on a par with or slightly above those of the previous series. This means mobile profits at the world's largest smartphone maker are unlikely to see huge growth compared to the 11.8 trillion won ($11 billion) posted last year.
Read more: Samsung's Galaxy S9 vs Apple's iPhone X
The S9 has a price advantage over Apple Inc.'s iPhone X, though it will come with an estimated 10 percent increase compared to the S8. But there's a challenge -- analysts just don't think there's enough smartphone demand to go around this year.
Here's what they say about the latest smartphones:
Mizuho
- “Improvements in camera features as well as user experience of S9/S9+ are likely to be positively received by consumers.”
- Average selling price to rise 10 percent, though Samsung may adjust pricing points later depending on sales trends
- Doesn't see launch of phones as a major catalyst for the company's shares
JPMorgan
- Expects S9 shipments to be slightly lower than company forecasts and “cautiously expect” annual sales volume to be similar to G8 on muted demand for premium smartphones
- JPMorgan's S9 shipment forecast at 38 million units in 2018 compared with Samsung's guidance of 40 million units
- Supply chain beneficiaries: Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co. Ltd., Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Ibiden Co. Ltd. and AAC Technologies Holdings Inc.
Goldman
- Earlier launch date and “favorable” competitive environment could help S9 series to sell at least at a similar level to the S8 series last year
- Samsung Electro-Mechanics to be main beneficiary
Nomura
- The lack of major smartphone launches, aside from Samsung's, at the Mobile World Congress may mean companies are undergoing difficulties developing new features
- Samsung expected to record first quarter shipments of about 7 million S9 units, significantly higher than S8 deliveries
- Sees 10 percent increase in average selling price
- Expects smartphone replacement to recover in 2019 after lack of major drivers this year
Ebest Investment & Securities
- Annual mobile operating profit will likely stay around 11 trillion won, similar to last year's level
- Though the S9 is not much different to its predecessor in terms of design, shipments this year estimated at 40 million units or more, helped by better camera features
--With assistance from Ron Harui
To contact the reporter on this story: Min Jeong Lee in Tokyo at mlee754@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Divya Balji at dbalji1@bloomberg.net, Colin Simpson
©2018 Bloomberg L.P.
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