Elections 2019: Congress Raises Stakes With Detailed Manifesto, Will BJP Follow?

Elections 2019: Congress Raises Stakes With Detailed Manifesto, Will BJP Follow?
Former Congress President Sonia Gandhi (left), Congress President Rahul Gandhi, and former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the release of party’s manifesto for upcoming Lok Sabha polls 2019, in New Delhi, April 02, 2019. (Photographer: Shahbaz Khan/PTI)

The 55-page Indian National Congress manifesto released by party President Rahul Gandhi took one year to put together and covers a vast range of issues from jobs, farmers, national security to even LGBTQ rights. The exercise has given a renewed importance to manifestos, which have been reduced to a formality over the last few state and parliamentary elections. In some parts, the Congress lapses into ‘default mode' of big government that takes upon itself to provide everything from jobs to healthcare and education. Some ideas like an elected mayor for cities, and exempting startups from laws other than from minimum wage and income tax, are new. Here's what to make of the top pitches in the Congress manifesto.

Jobs

  • Government will fill vacancies, 4 lakh in the central government, 20 lakh in states, by March 2020.
  • Days of employment under MNREGA to be increased to 150.
  • Employment through government funded programs like AASHA scheme and Sewa Mitra.
  • Encouragement to private sector through exemptions for startups and apprenticeship programme for businesses with 100 employees.
Takeaway: Solving the jobs crisis through government spending is nowhere close to being to a long-term solution. The idea of making funding to states conditional on filling 20 lakh vacancies is bound to backfire.

Farmers

  • Farm loan waivers to be extended to all states.
  • Separate ‘Kisan Budget' focusing on farmers.
  • Farmer debt defaults to be a civil liability and not criminal.
Takeaway: The promises to farmers include setting up of several committees. This approach has had limited success in the past. It is unclear whether farm loan waivers promised to all states will be funded by the central government.

‘NYAY'

  • Rs 72,000 per year to be given to 5 crore families.
  • Design phase of three months and pilot phase of nine months before roll out.
  • Expert panel will monitor roll out and implementation.
  • NYAY scheme to cost less than 1 percent of GDP in year-one and less than 2 percent of GDP in year-two
Takeaway: The guaranteed income is the most eye-catching promise. Although there are more details in the manifesto on funding and roll out than provided in the last few weeks, there are plenty of gray areas that remain.

Abolishing Laws And Programmes

The promise of reversing laws and programmes brought in by previous dispensations feature prominently. Some of the schemes and plans that will face the axe if a Congress government comes to power include:

  • APMC Act,
  • E-way bill,
  • Angel tax,
  • Electoral bonds,
  • Citizenship Amendment Bill,
  • NITI Aayog,
  • Sedition law.
Takeaway: Promising to do away with Section 124A of the Indian Penal Code, that deals with sedition, is a clear departure from the position taken by previous Congress governments. It shows the influence of a wider range of voices in the manifesto, beyond, potentially, former Home Minister P Chidambaram.

Health And Education

  • To allocate 6 percent of GDP to education by 2023–24.
  • To extend Right to Education till class XII.
  • To allocate 3 percent of GDP to healthcare by FY24.
Takeaway: While the manifesto has many more welfare promises than the three picked here,  these are the key ones. The promise of a total allocation of 9 percent of GDP to education and healthcare has a 2023-24 horizon. While it is a bold promise, even for the ‘left-oriented' Congress, the timeline suggests enough wriggle-room if the need arises.

Jammu & Kashmir

  • Two pronged approach, firmness on the border and winning hearts and minds.
  • Review deployment of armed forces.
  • Dialogue with all stakeholders.
  • Review AFSPA to balance needs of security forces and human rights.
  • Hold Assembly election immediately.
Takeaway: While the manifesto dedicates a separate section to the North East, it is the portion on Jammu & Kashmir that has generated the strongest criticism from the BJP. The party has stuck its neck out by proposing a review of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in the valley and reducing the number of armed forces. These are demands that P Chidambaram – former home minister and a key member of the manifesto committee, has not voiced in the past.

By investing this much time and effort in its manifesto, Congress has raised the stakes for the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP released its previous Lok Sabha election manifesto on April 7, 2014, the same day as the first votes were being cast, which seemingly made little difference to its electoral success. Can the BJP afford to bank just on ‘Modi magic', again?

Tamanna Inamdar is Senior Editor at BloombergQuint.

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