Bihar Elections 2025 Opinion Poll: BJP-JD(U) Alliance To Retain Power With About 150 Seats, Says Matriz Survey

The National Democratic Alliance in Bihar, headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United), are poised to retain power in the state with around 150 seats, according to an opinion released by research agency Matriz, in tie-up with news agency IANS.

The survey says that the NDA is poised to secure 49% of the total votes — sufficient to ensure a full majority victory in the assembly polls. The Opposition bloc, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress, are projected to win only 36% of the votes.

Others, or non-aligned players, could bag about 15% of the overall voteshare, it said. This may include Jan Suraaj, the political party floated by former poll strategist Prashant Kishor.

The BJP is projected to win 80-85 seats, and the JD(U) 60-65. The takes the estimated cumulative tally of the two parties to 140-150 seats, significantly higher than the halfway-majority mark of 122 constituencies.

Among smaller NDA allies, Jitin Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awami Morcha (Secular) is projected to win three seats, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party 4-6, and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha 1-2.

RJD To Remain Biggest Opposition: Survey

As per the survey, the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD is poised to win 60-65 seats, lower than its previous tally of 75; and the Congress is expected to be restricted to 7-10 seats, down from its last tally of 19.

The Left parties, which are part of the 'Mahagathbandhan' Opposition bloc, are projected to win 6-11 seats. Vikassheel Insaf Party, also a part of the coalition, could win 2-4 constituencies, as per the opinion poll.

Among the non-aligned players, Kishor's Jan Suraaj party is projected to win 2-5 seats, and Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is expected to bag 1-3 constituences.

Nitish Remains Top CM Choice: Opinion Poll

As per the Matriz survey, 42% of the respondents said they see the incumbent chief minister, Nitish Kumar, as their top CM choice, followed by 15% opting for Tejashwi Yadav.

Around 9% said they would prefer to see Kishor as the next CM, whereas 8% were in favour of Paswan. Only 3% leaned in favour of Samrat Choudhary, the BJP leader who is currently the deputy CM.

Notably, the opinion poll findings were released shortly after the election dates were announced. The polls will be held in two phases, on Nov. 6 and Nov. 11, and the counting of votes has been scheduled on Nov. 14.