Tesla Has $1.2 Billion At Risk In Trump Tax Bill, JPMorgan Says
An all-but-doomed tax credit highlights just how much Elon Musk's biggest business has to lose under President Donald Trump.
Trump's massive tax bill would largely eliminate a credit worth as much as $7,500 for buyers of some Tesla Inc. models and other electric vehicles by the end of this year, seven years ahead of schedule. That would translate to a roughly $1.2 billion hit to Tesla's full-year profit, according to JPMorgan analysts.
After leaving his formal advisory role in the White House last week, Musk, Tesla's chief executive officer, has been on a mission to block the president's signature tax bill that he described as a “disgusting abomination.” The world's richest person has been lobbying Republican lawmakers — including making a direct appeal to House Speaker Mike Johnson — to preserve the valuable EV tax credits in the legislation.
Tesla's business is under threat regulatory elsewhere. Separate legislation passed by the Senate attacking California's EV sales mandates poses another $2 billion headwind for Tesla's sales of regulatory credits, according to JPMorgan.
Taken together, those measures threaten roughly half of the more than $6 billion in earnings before interest and taxes that Wall Street expects Tesla to post this year, analysts led by Ryan Brinkman said in a May 30 report.
Tesla didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The House-passed tax bill would aggressively phase-out tax credits for the production of clean electricity, and other sources years earlier than scheduled. It also includes stringent restrictions on the use of Chinese components and materials that analysts said would render the credits useless and limits the ability of company's to sell the tax credits to third parties.
Abruptly ending the energy tax credits would threaten America's energy independence and the reliability of our grid - we urge the senate to enact legislation with a sensible wind down of 25D and 48e. This will ensure continued speedy deployment of over 60 GW capacity per year to…
May 29, 2025Tesla's division focused on solar systems and batteries separately criticized the Republican bill for gutting clean energy tax credits, saying that “abruptly ending” the incentives would threaten US energy independence and the reliability of the power grid.
The clean energy and EV policies under threat were largely enacted as part of former President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. The law was designed to encourage companies to build a domestic supply chain for clean energy and electric vehicles, giving companies more money if they produce more batteries and EVs in the US. Tesla has a broad domestic footprint, including car factories in Texas and California, a lithium refinery and battery plants.
With those Biden-era policies in place, US EV sales rose 7.3% to a record 1.3 million vehicles last year, according to Cox Automotive data.
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High US Salaries, No Green Card Certainty: The Financial Calculation Facing Indian H-1B Families
The suspension of PERM processing at eight technology employers does not cancel existing H-1B visas. What it does is force a question many Indian families have been avoiding: is the US salary worth tying your career and family plans to one employer?
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Swiggy vs Eternal: Food Delivery's Two Rivals Are No Longer In The Same Race
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Where You Live Shapes How You Get To Work | The Reason Why
Two-wheelers are the most popular way to get to work in India, accounting for nearly 43% of workplace commutes.
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Unhedged Position: Can India See An Indonesia-Style Time Correction?
The Nifty is trading below levels it first clocked in 2024. Is there, then, as I have suggested in the headline, potential that the current time correction drags on painfully for the next three-five, even ten years?
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Navigating Friction And Energy Realities: An Analysis Of Marco Rubio's October Visit To India
Occurring at a critical juncture marked by stalled trade negotiations and escalating geopolitical pressures over global energy supplies, the visit offers a profound window into modern US-India relations.
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India Exports Capital. Why Not Export Trusteeship?
The big question, then, is whether India can build an institution that global borrowers, investors, banks, and lawyers can trust, even without an Indian connection.
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France's Economy & Politics Are In Crisis | The Reason Why
Let's look at how the French economy and politics evolved under Nicolas Sarkozy, Franois Hollande and Emmanuel Macron.
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You May Inherit The Business. You Must Earn Its Credibility.
Succession tests the founder's ability to share authority as much as it tests the next generation's readiness to assume it.
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Signing Deals Is One Thing; Making Them Work Is Another | The Week In Whys
Sometimes, things don't turn out as planned. Indian companies have lost some bids to rivals, some projects won't produce until 2030.
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FOMC Wall, PERM Suspension, Hospital Stocks | Talking Points This Week
A PERM suspension would directly affect green-card sponsorship rather than H-1B visas, so the near-term earnings impact could remain relatively limited. The key question is whether this marks a new phase in US scrutiny of Indian IT.
