- Auto demand in early October 2026 was stable month-on-month but down YoY due to last year's base effect
- Festive season sales expected to grow mid- to high-single-digits from Sept to Nov despite timing shifts
- Mahindra & Mahindra leads market share gains with strong product demand and premium dealership experience
CLSA noted that auto demand and registrations for the first half of October 2026 remained stable month-on-month, but declined sharply because of a high base from last year, led by pent-up demand following GST rate cut from end-Sep last year and inauspicious buying period trickling to part of first half of the month.
Despite the festive season being pushed slightly, dealers and OEMS continue to expect mid- to high-single-digit volume growth during the September and November period, the brokerage said in its research note.
"Dealers across brands highlighted that inquiry levels were healthy and higher YoY during Dussehra, and despite recent price hikes, consumer sentiment remains healthy. Inventory levels are largely at normal levels, while discounting has also remained broadly stable," CLSA stated.
Also Read | Layoffs Are Rising In Tech, But These Skills Are Helping People Unlock Better Pay
It highlighted that Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. continues to remain its top pick among auto players, followed by Bajaj Auto Ltd. and Ather Energy.
In regards to other auto players, CLSA said that TVS Moto and Royal Enfield have gained market share, while Hero MotoCorp lost around 822bps year-on-year of market share predominantly due to festive period mismatch.
"E-2W penetration maintained its strong momentum, touching 10% of industry volumes. TVSL continues to set the pace with a commanding 28% market share, followed by BJAUT at 20% and Ather at 15%," the brokerage outlined.
Mahindra & Mahindra
CLSA highlighted that M&M has gained 134 basis points (bps) year-on-year in market share, supported by strong traction from its recent product launches.The company's stood out as one of the most premium dealership formats across all OEMs visited, with a comprehensive display of its portfolio spanning both ICE and EV brands.
"Dealer feedback suggests that demand momentum remains robust across the portfolio. Notably, the dealer highlighted that enquiry levels during the current Dussehra season have been higher than those seen during the corresponding period last year, indicating sustained consumer interest despite a strong base," CLSA underlined.
The brokerage added that demand continues to outpace supply across key models, with virtually all major nameplates carrying waiting periods, reflecting healthy bookings for the auto giant.
Bajaj Auto
Dealer interactions indicated that the recently launched Pulsar 125 and Pulsar 150 have received a positive response, attracting healthy consumer interest and enquiries, CLSA underscored, even as showrooms were not as premium as other two-wheeler OEMs.
Further, on the EV side, the dealer highlighted a notable demand for Chetak, with enquiry levels increasing materially in recent months. Booking volumes were reported to be comfortably ahead of dispatches, indicating strong underlying demand and a growing order pipeline.
Ather Energy
Ather has a healthy order backlog, with monthly bookings averaging at around 90-100 units, significantly higher than current deliveries of around 60 units per month, as per CLSA's assessment.
"The dealer also highlighted that a majority of customers opt for the AtherStack package along with the scooter, reflecting strong acceptance of Ather's connected technology ecosystem. The Rizta remains the dealership's best-selling model," the brokerage said.
CV, Tractor Sales Pulse Check
Overall CV retail sales increased 5% year-on-yeart in the first two weeks of the month on a strong base. CV upcycle remains resilient despite price increase and tough macro-economic conditions.
Tractor volumes remain broadly flat year-on-year; both M&M and Escorts have delivered 7-10% year-to-date volume growth. OEM guidance is mid-to-high single-digit industry growth, according to CLSA.
"Price increases have been largely well absorbed by consumers in the premium segments. However, in the entry-level segment, some degree of demand elasticity has emerged. Hence, OEMs have undertaken some price correction," the brokerage stated.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
