JPMorgan Sees ‘Limited Downside’ For Crypto Near Term After Bitcoin’s Recent Rout

A Bitcoin logo in the window of a BitBase cryptocurrency exchange in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, May 16, 2022. The wipeout of algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD and its sister token Luna knocked more than $270 billion off the crypto sector’s total trillion-dollar value in the most volatile week for Bitcoin trading in at least two years. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- The recent selloff in crypto markets is likely near an end, with long-position liquidations “largely behind us,” according to a research report by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The fading of some positive legal and regulatory news induced a wave of selling in recent weeks that is “still reverberating,” though the unwinding appears to be at its end phase, based on open interest in CME Bitcoin futures contracts, analysts including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote on Thursday. A decline in open interest - the number of unsettled and active future contracts trading on exchanges - typically indicates a price trend is losing strength.

“As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term,” they said.

Bitcoin, the largest crypto token, was down 0.2% at around $25,980 as of 11:30 a.m. in New York on Friday. In the past two weeks, it has fallen almost 12% after trading sideways for about a month.

Earlier in the summer, Bitcoin got a burst from several developments seen as positive for the industry. Most notably, traders took heart from a flurry of applications, led by BlackRock Inc., to launch what would be the first US exchange-traded funds tied to the spot price of the token. A district court decision seen as favorable to Ripple Labs in its legal fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission also buoyed the broader market.

Some of the enthusiasm around that news is now fading, as traders settle in to wait for a decision on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and the SEC prepares an appeal against the court decision on Ripple, with an outcome in the case not expected “until next year,” the analysts said. That induces a “new round of legal uncertainty” for crypto markets, making them sensitive to any further developments.

The pullback was also partly due to a broader correction in risk assets such as equities, induced by “frothy positioning in tech, higher US real yields and growth concerns about China,” the note said.

On Friday, risk assets wobbled slightly after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the US central bank is prepared to raise interest rates further if needed and intends to keep borrowing costs high until inflation is on a convincing path toward policy makers' target.

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