Bull Markets To Face A Global Drain On Liquidity, Gavekal Warns
(Bloomberg) -- Traders should brace for a global withdrawal of liquidity, which will usher in more market volatility, according to Gavekal Research.
Technology stocks, gold and bitcoin are among the assets to have soared lately, even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and the rich valuations in stock markets suggests that there's still plenty of cash available.
“The hard reality of bull markets is that market advances need money to come in from somewhere,” wrote Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research. “Yet more new drags on global liquidity are going to appear in coming months.”
These include a draining of the Fed's reserve repo facility, more issuance of US Treasuries, the end to a decline in oil inventories and the potential repatriation of cash to Japan by domestic institutions after its central bank raises interest rate.
“From both the demand and supply sides, the broad global liquidity environment seems set to change radically in the coming weeks and months,” Gave wrote in a report. “This should make for greater market volatility and should prove particularly dangerous for today's various overstretched and richly-valued assets.”
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