BPCL, IOCL, HPCL Q4 Results Preview: Weaker Margins, Net Profit Expected
Oil marketing companies like Bharat Petroleum Corp., Indian Oil Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. are expected to post a weak set of numbers in the fourth quarter of financial year 2025.
Net profits of the companies are expected to fall 25% to 46% on a quarter on quarter basis on the back of lower gross marketing and refining margins.
Here is a look at earnings estimates of these top players.
BPCL Q4 FY25 Results Estimates (Standalone QoQ)
Announcement expected April 29.
Net revenue may rise marginally 0.4% to Rs 1,13,639 crore vs Rs 1,13,136 crore.
Ebitda may fall 30% to Rs 5,277 crore vs Rs 7,580 crore.
Margin expected at 4.6% vs 6.7%.
Net profit may fall 41% to Rs 2,747 crore vs Rs 4,649 crore.
IOCL Q4FY25 Results Estimates (Standalone QoQ)
Results expected on April 30.
Net revenue may fall 1.6% to Rs 1,90,837 crore vs Rs 1,93,900 crore.
Ebitda may fall 5% to Rs 6,755 crore vs Rs 7,117 crore.
Margin expected at 3.5% vs 3.7%.
Net profit may fall 25% to Rs 1,646 crore vs Rs 2,194 crore.
HPCL Q4FY25 Results Estimates (Standalone QoQ)
Announcement expected on May 6.
Net revenue may fall 1% to Rs 1,09,544 crore vs Rs 1,10,505 crore.
Ebitda may fall 35% to Rs 3,902 crore vs Rs 5,970 crore.
Margins expected at 3.6% vs 5.4%.
Net profit may fall 46% to Rs 1,645 crore vs Rs 3,023 crore.
Factors To Impact Earnings
The profitability of oil marketing companies are based on two sets of margins—gross marketing margins and refining margins. Both these margins are expected to be lower in Q4 FY25.
Refining margins are expected to be weak on the back of lower Singapore gross refining margins that average around $3.1 per barrel compared to $5 in the previous quarter.
Marketing margins of the companies are expected to fall around 28% quarter-on-quarter on a blended basis, as per analysts. Average marketing margins are expected to decrease to Rs 6.8 per litre versus Rs 9.4 per litre in Q3FY25.
The Surprise Factor
The inventory number on the books of oil companies are set to be the surprise factor. Brent crude prices were very volatile during the quarter, ranging from a high of $82 per barrel and a low of below $70 per barrel.
What To Watch For:
Management commentary on changes in retail fuel prices.
Commentary on LPG subsidy burden.
Outlook on gross refining margin.
Capex outlay.
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