All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On October 4

Indian Open

Asian stocks were mixed after American benchmarks closed at record highs.

The rally in the dollar petered out as investors awaited fresh triggers for trades from President Donald Trump's pending decision on the leadership of the Federal Reserve, along with upcoming policy maker speeches and U.S. economic data.

Back home, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index's performance in India, rose 0.13 percent to 9,887 as of 7:06 a.m.

Here's a quick look at all that could influence equities on Wednesday.

Global Cues

• U.S. equities added to records as car sales boosted industrial shares, while Treasure yields turned lower and the dollar erased gains after touching a two-month high.

#BQMarketsNow | U.S. stocks end at record high; oil near $50 per barrel mark.https://t.co/wj3z30rBtD pic.twitter.com/yNzPjU368C

October 4, 2017

Europe

• European stocks posted slight gains on Tuesday as political concerns eased and investors digested new data releases.
• The pan-European Stoxx 50 fluctuated throughout trade, before closing up 0.10 percent at 3,605.73.
• Germany's stock exchanges were closed for a national holiday.

Asian Cues

• Japan's Topix index was little changed at 1,683.82. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7 percent.
• Futures on Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 0.3 percent.
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index jumped 1.3 percent on Tuesday.
• Markets in South Korea, China and Taiwan are closed for a holiday.

Commodity Cues

• Crude oil prices extended losses in the early Asian trade, as industry data showed that U.S. gasoline stockpiles and crude inventories increased.
• West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.7 percent to $50.08 a barrel.
• Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,275.30 an ounce.
• ICE sugar snapped a three-day winning streak and ended 1.9 percent lower at 14.04 cents a pound

Among the key events coming this week:

• India's central bank on Wednesday will probably hold its benchmark rate at a seven-year low and maintain its neutral stance, given inflation is picking up. Still, the central bank is expected to paint a subdued picture of India's economy and could downgrade its forecasts for growth. Government and industry are pushing for monetary easing.

The monetary policy committee has room to cut rates to support growth if it chooses to. @dugalira explains why.https://t.co/veCgBV2GAp pic.twitter.com/BkUtCZhPmF

October 3, 2017

• ADP U.S. employment data for September is due Wednesday, with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey calling for a 135,000 increase in private payrolls, compared with 237,000 in August. Also out this week will be data on trade, durable goods and Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report.
• China is due to report monthly foreign-exchange reserves Thursday.
• Minutes of the last ECB meeting are the European economic highlight this week.

Indian ADRs

Stocks To Watch

• Natco Pharma will be in focus today as Mylan gets U.S. FDA nod for 20 mg and 40 mg versions of Copaxone
• Oil companies: Government cuts excise duty rate on petrol and diesel by Rs 2 per litre
• Hero MotoCorp September sales cross 7 lakh mark
• Apollo Tyres launches an institutional share sale to raise Rs 1,200 crore with a greenshoe option of Rs 300 crore opens
• Mahanagar Gas raises CNG, PNG prices in Mumbai by nearly 4 percent
• Ricoh India says NCLT rejected FDS' petition under the Bankruptcy Code
• Indian Overseas Bank revises savings account interest rate by 50 basis points
• Info Edge India: Zomato waives reservation fees for restaurant bookings
• Cyient signed an in-software licensing pact with Elpis Squared
• Ahluwalia Contracts bagged construction and re-development orders worth Rs 555.77 crore
• Greaves Cotton partnered with Altigreen Propulsion Labs to deliver clean energy solutions
• Mandhana Industries says NCLT, Mumbai bench initiated insolvency proceedings against the company
• Bombay Rayon Fashions to allot 1.93 crore shares to State Bank under S4A scheme
• L&T Infotech clarifies that the $100 million contract from CBDT was received in July, 2016
• Majesco launched version 10 of the Majesco P&C Suite

Festive cheer for automakers as sales rise in September, reports @journoanirudh.https://t.co/INaRsyG1Vf pic.twitter.com/gjM12W1aFA

October 3, 2017

IPO

• Godrej Agrovet's IPO opens at a price band of Rs 450-460. The company allotted 7.42 million shares to anchor investors ahead of the IPO.
• The General Insurance Corporation IPO opens Oct 11, ends Oct 13

Godrej Agrovet IPO: these are the company's financial highlights.@soumeet_sarkar reportshttps://t.co/uQLUvmliYq pic.twitter.com/rH0EAwAxI9

October 3, 2017

Bulk Deal

• Hatsun Agro Products: SBI Mutual Fund bought 10.50 lakh shares (or 0.69 percent equity) at Rs 700 each

Who's Meeting Whom?

• Hindustan Zinc will be meeting institutional investors on October 4 - 5
• Dena Bank will be meeting investors in Dubai on October 4
• Eicher to meet UBS Securities, Nomura and Wellington Capital on October 4
• Bodal Chemicals to meet investors and analysts on October 4
• Deepak Fertilisers to meet SPA Securities on October 4
• Sanghi Industries will meet Birla MF, Pramerica MF and Ocean Dial AMC on October 4
• Eicher to meet Morgan Stanley Investment Management on October 5
• FIEM Industries to meet Singular Capital on October 5
• JMC Projects to meet Kotak AMC on October 5
• HPCL to meet CIMB Securities on October 6

Rupee

• Rupee ended at 65.50 against the dollar on Tuesday compared to 65.28 on Friday.

Top Gainers And Losers In Last 30 Days

F&O Cues

• Nifty October Futures trading with a premium of 8.9 points versus 12 points at 9859.5
• October Futures: Nifty open interest up 4 percent, Bank Nifty open interest rose 2 percent
• India VIX closed lower by 0.2 percent at 12.46
• October series highest Call base at 10,000 (open interest at 46.5 lakh shares, down 4 percent)
• October series highest Put base at 9700 (open interest at 39.7 lakh, up 13 percent)
• October call strikes 9,700, 9,800, 10,000 saw unwinding
• October put strikes 9,700, 9,800 and 9,900 saw open interest addition

F&O Ban

• In ban: Indiabulls Real Estate, JSW Energy
• New in ban: JSW Energy

Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in the F&O ban. There will be a penalty in the case of a rollover.

Put-Call Ratio

• Nifty PCR at 1.24 from 1.19
• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.90 from 0.91

Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change

• Power Grid saw open interest addition of 25 percent on short side
• GAIL saw open interest addition of 21 percent on long side
• Voltas saw open interest addition of 16 percent on long side
• Infratel saw open interest addition of 14 percent on long side
• Dish TV saw open interest addition of 11 percent on short side
• Hindustan Zinc saw open interest addition of 10 percent on long side
• Reliance Capital saw open interest addition of 9 percent on short side
• PC Jeweller saw open interest addition of 9 percent on long side

Fund Flows

• Foreign institutions sold Rs 693 crore in the cash market
• Domestic institutions bought Rs 1,552 crore in the cash market
• Foreign institutions bought Rs 2,217 crore in the F&O market
• Foreign institutions had bought Rs 1,077 crore on Friday, according to NSDL.

Brokerage Radar

ICICIdirect on Ratnamani Metals & Tubes

• Initiates Buy rating with price target of Rs 1,050
• Ratnamani perfectly positioned to cater upcoming demand
• Capex revival in key industries to provide requisite demand push
• Strong multi-year order-book of Rs 2,100 crore provides strong revenue visibility
• Expect revenue, EBITDA and net profit to grow at a CAGR of 14.5 percent, 15.6 percent and 17.3 percent respectively over FY17-20

CS on Pharma

• Prefers Sun Pharma over Dr. Reddy's
• Price erosion risk lower in Sun Pharma vs Dr. Reddy's
• Long-term story stronger for Sun Pharma with its more advanced specialty portfolio in the U.S.
• FDA risk higher for Dr. Reddy's with potential import alert at Duvvada plant
• Sun gets higher proportion of profits from India, thus more earning stability

Brokerages on Coal India

• Morgan Stanley: Maintains Underweight with price target of Rs 221. Low base continues to support. strong volume growth; Balance of FY18, expect 6.5 percent CAGR on a two-year basis.
• Nomura: Maintains Neutral with price target of Rs 260. Re-stocking surge by power plants drive volumes; For FY18 expect production/offtake at 572/580 MT implying 3.2 percent/6.8 percent growth.

Macquarie on HDFC

• Maintains Outperform with price target of Rs 1,890
• HDFC Asset Management Company valued at 5.2 percent trailing AAUM vs Reliance Mutual Fund valued at 8-10 percent of trailing AAUM
• Monetisation could raise HDFC's valuation by Rs 44 a share
• HDFC AMC has 13 percent market share

Nomura on Adani Ports & SEZ

• Maintains Reduce; hiked price target to Rs 319 from Rs 234
• Raise earnings estimates by 11-13 percent over FY18-19 to factor in better traffic growth and lower debt
• Return on equity to fall due fall in margins and higher tax burden
• Mundra volume growth to be driven by 15 percent CAGR in containers over FY17-20
• Revenue and net profit to grow at CAGR of 16 percent and 3 percent over FY17-20; margins to be around 11-12 percent
• Poor free cash flow generation to continue in the near-term

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