Theresa May Gambles on Last-Ditch Vote to Avoid Long Brexit Delay

(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May is making a desperate push to get her Brexit deal approved in Parliament to avoid a huge delay to Britain's divorce from the EU, even though she's facing what seem to be impossible odds.

Members of Parliament, who've twice rejected her deal, will be asked to back the Withdrawal Agreement in a vote Friday at about 2:30 p.m. London time.

But the prime minister has so far failed to win over enough of her allies to support the deal. It's two years to the day since May formally triggered the U.K.'s divorce proceedings, and 11 p.m. Friday was to have been the moment Britain left the EU. Instead, the country's politicians remain stuck, unable to agree to the terms of the separation that May negotiated with the bloc, and Brexit has been postponed.

Read More: May's Brexit Deal Still Looks Doomed - Here's The Math

Nonetheless, Friday 11 p.m. remains critically significant: That's when the EU's offer of a divorce agreement and an orderly exit by May 22 will expire. If Parliament does not pass the deal by then, the country will have to decide whether to leave with no deal on April 12 — severely hitting the economy — or to delay Brexit potentially for many months or even years.

For Want of Consensus

Ultimately a fresh election could be necessary to break the stalemate in Parliament. May has said she won't deliver a Brexit that sees the U.K. remain in a customs union or a second referendum.

During a series of non-binding, or indicative, votes Wednesday, MPs failed to find a consensus for any outcome, though plans for a soft Brexit customs union were the most popular and just six short of a majority.

May has tried everything to get her deal over the line, including promising to quit, but has still not convinced all her own Conservative Party colleagues or the 10 members of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party that prop up her minority government.

Essential Backing

All week, May's government has said it will only hold a third vote on her deal if it thinks it will win.

But despite another round of talks with May, the DUP said it would still vote against the deal, according to a spokesman for the smaller party Thursday. It's almost impossible for May to get it through without them.

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the main opposition Labour Party, also rejected the plan. The two leaders spoke on the phone for 20 minutes at about 5 p.m. London time Thursday, according to a Labour spokeswoman. Corbyn told May he disapproved of her plan to separate the Withdrawal Agreement from the Political Declaration, calling it a “blindfold Brexit.”

May's plan to bring her deal back earlier in the month was also derailed by House Speaker John Bercow, who invoked a 400-year-old tradition to rule that May couldn't ask parliamentarians to vote on the same motion twice.

Read More: Theresa May's Brexit Deal Still Looks Doomed - Here's The Math

To get around that, May's motion for Friday removes the section of the package that focuses on future trade and security relationship, known as the Political Declaration. That would at least meet the requirements of the EU, while giving Parliament space to work out a way forward, Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom said.

While Bercow allowed the government's tactic, it angered some members of Parliament who accused May of “playing games” by trying to separate the Withdrawal Agreement and future partnership section in order to get her deal through.

“This is an extraordinary and unprecedented reverse-ferret of the commitments that have been given by Ministers to this place: that we should have our say on both items together,” said Labour MP Mary Creagh.

--With assistance from Thomas Penny.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jessica Shankleman in London at jshankleman@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Robert Jameson

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