Irma Weakens as It Heads Past Tampa, Cutting Damage Forecast

(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Irma weakened as it moved past Tampa, leaving in its wake at least 4.7 million without power and millions temporarily displaced.

The center of the system is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane center said in an advisory. A storm surge warning was discontinued for parts of southern Florida as the storm headed north. Enki Research's estimate for total damages dropped to $49 billion from $200 billion earlier.

Despite curfews and downed trees, some southern Florida residents were already venturing out to walk pets and take in the storm-freshened air on Sunday night.

“This had the potential to be catastrophic,” said Gladys Ibarra, 51, who works in finance at a shipping company, as she wandered an inland stretch of Coral Gables, where tree limbs littered the ground, but buildings looked little damaged. “We were very scared, and we were very lucky.”

The cyclone made landfall in the Keys about 9 a.m. Sunday as a Category 4 storm with winds hitting 130 miles per hour, ravaging the delicate string of islands and then battering Miami before beginning its march up the coast as its fury began to dissipate. The storm is now about 60 miles north of Tampa, whose shallow bay, flat topography and lack of physical protection had made it the next notable urban area in Irma's projected path.

Storm Surge

As of 5 a.m., Irma had top winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour, a Category 1 storm, and was about 60 miles north of Tampa, the National Hurricane Center said. Rescue personnel in the city were sheltering Sunday night until the winds died down. Irma is expected to weaken to a tropical storm over northern Florida or southern Georgia later on Monday morning, the center said.

“Let's wait for the sun to come up in the morning,” said Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, “and then we'll set about the business of cleaning up the city.”

But even before the full damage could be tallied, Irma's impact was falling short of predictions by a number of measures. On Friday, NextEra Energy Inc.'s Florida Power & Light utility was warning that 4.1 million of its customers could lose power, almost half of the state's population. As of midnight New York time, about 3.6 million were down. Duke Energy Inc. estimated that Irma could knock out service to more than 1 million customers; 639,000 were without power.

The estimated financial impact shrank as well. Chuck Watson, an Enki Research disaster modeler in Savannah, Georgia, had predicted total damages as high as $200 billion. However, the hurricane dwindled to a Category 2 before reaching the Tampa Bay area. That could keep damages under $49 billion, with insured losses at about $19 billion, sparing insurance companies, Watson said.

By comparison, total losses from Hurricane Katrina reached $160 billion in 2017 dollars after it slammed into New Orleans in 2005.

“There may yet be a Florida insurance market on Tuesday,” Watson said.
 
The dramatic drop in Irma's estimated cost, though, didn't mean the region would be spared a savage human toll. It has already laid waste to the small island of Barbuda, killed at least 25 people and left thousands homeless across the Caribbean. Early reports suggested that the low-lying Keys were devastated, with photos showing cars submerged almost to their roofs.

Read more: How Science Links Climate Change to Irma's Wallop: QuickTake Q&A

The storm's impact rippled across the nation and beyond. In Atlanta, shoppers besieged grocery stores, stripping shelves of water, bread and milk. South Carolina opened shelters to accommodate an expected flood of refugees; in Florida, 6.5 million residents had evacuated.

Military ships and aircraft delivered thousands of tarps, 40 pallets of food, medical supplies and water to the Virgin Islands, while evacuating more than 70 patients, according to a news release from the U.S. Northern Command. Ships were in position to begin search and rescue work when weather permits.

The Defense Logistics Agency sent about 5,000 gallons of water to Haiti; 100,000 gallons of gasoline and diesel to Warner Robins Air Force Base in Georgia to support the Federal Emergency Management Agency; and millions of meals to staging areas on bases in Alabama and North Carolina.

In Washington, the House of Representatives said lawmakers shouldn't expect planned votes Monday because of absences caused by the storm, according to an announcement by the office of Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. And President Donald Trump described the hurricane as “a storm of enormous destructive power.”

--With assistance from Ezra Fieser Daniel Acker Terrence Dopp Nathan Crooks Erik Schatzker Nacha Cattan Bailey Lipschultz Sonali Basak Brian K. Sullivan and Dan Murtaugh

To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Levin in Miami at jlevin20@bloomberg.net, Michael Smith in Miami at msmith251@bloomberg.net, Mark Chediak in San Francisco at mchediak@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Flynn McRoberts at fmcroberts1@bloomberg.net, Stephen Merelman at smerelman@bloomberg.net, Lynn Doan at ldoan6@bloomberg.net, Alaric Nightingale, John Deane