Gujarat Poll Of Polls: Congress Inroads Into BJP’s Stronghold
Pollsters, political pundits and analysts are largely predicting a win for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party in Gujarat, with the rider that it is turning out to be a closer fight than expected.
“Whenever a trend is in one direction, it tends to go higher on election day,” said R Jagannathan, editorial director of Swarajya magazine that describes itself as “a big tent for liberal right of centre discourse”. He was referring to various pre-election surveys that give the BJP an edge in number of seats and project a drop in margins for the the party since August.
The BJP's margin is going down consistently in all the polls, which is why it is difficult to say now that the BJP is home and dry. This time, if they pull it off it will be quite a miracle.R Jagannathan, Editorial Director, Swarajya
Also Read: Day Ahead Of Voting In Gujarat, BJP Releases Manifesto
Yashwant Deshmukh, founder editor of CVoter, which conducted its own pre-election surveys, said performance in central Gujarat will be a crucial determinant of the final outcome.
The Congress seems to have an edge in the northern and southern parts of the state, Deshmukh explained, while the BJP is stronger in Saurashtra. But the Congress' advantage evens out as Saurashtra has more seats. Central Gujarat, with 60 odd seats, is where the battle lies, he said.
The final battle remains in Central Gujarat which is also known as the epicentre of the 2002 riot region.Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder Editor, CVoter
But even within Central Gujarat, the verdict could be split between rural and urban areas, according to Desmukh. While the BJP seems stronger in the urban areas, the Congress may have an advantage in the rural hinterland.
Also Read: ‘A Strong CM Candidate Could Have Swung Gujarat In Congress' Favour'
And Gujarat being one of the most urbanised states in India, election outcome will be determined by one crucial factor. “If BJP does not manage to hold on to its seats in urban areas, then it could be a keener contest,” Deshmukh said.
The biggest boost for the ruling party, though, will come from Prime Minister Modi's campaign. Deshmukh pointed out that the polls which predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Congress were conducted when the Congress campaign was at its peak and Modi had not started his campaign in full force.
Now that the worst for the BJP is over and the Prime Minister has started his campaign, I believe that a lot of critical damage control can be done could be through the campaign of the Prime Minister alone.Yashwant Deshmukh, Founder Editor, CVoter
Also Read: Modi May Face Photo Finish on Home Turf
-
Indians Are Travelling, But Not Every Journey Is A Holiday | The Week In Whys
Pilgrims, patients and working women are the real travellers, and the system hasn't quite caught up with them.
-
Getting To Work Costs Women More | The Reason Why
It is not just about women paying more than men. It is about women paying much more in cities than in villages.
-
AI Bias In Investing Cannot Be Eliminated, But It Can Be Governed
Framing is a particularly important example as identical financial information presented in terms of gains rather than losses can lead an LLM to reach a different assessment.
-
Joining The Dots | Dark Skies, Steady Diya: Why Hope Holds This Diwali
With war, a weak rupee and foreign outflows weighing on sentiment, policymakers at the NDTV World Summit and market veterans at NDTV Profit Ignite: Diwali Edition offered the same advice: stay invested and filter out the noise.
-
The Curious Case of Equitas Small Finance Bank And A CEO Who Quit For Stock
PN Vasudevan believes persistent investor concerns over a perceived conflict of interest had become a governance overhang on Equitas Small Finance Bank's stock, even as the lender improved profitability and asset quality.
-
Talking Points This Week: AI Cash Burn, A Tiger Comeback And An India That Still Finds Its Own Path
India is not immune to higher oil or tighter global liquidity, yet its earnings base is broader, its domestic policy levers are still available.
-
Foreign Investors Own Half Of HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. An LTCG Cut Could Matter Most Here
Foreign portfolio investors have US$115 billion parked in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank. If the government cuts long-term capital gains tax, Jefferies says returning foreign money could land here first.
-
'Never Seen This Level Of Negativity': Sandeep Tandon Says The Next Rally May Be Closer Than You Think
Veteran investor Sandeep Tandon says foreign selling is easing, large-caps are due a comeback and mid-caps are crowded, while he turns positive on gold, power and pharma this Diwali.
-
Indians Stay With Family, Not In Hotels | The Reason Why
India still lacks enough clean, reliable and affordable hotels for budget-conscious travellers.
-
The Economic Imperative: Analysing The Material Driving Force Behind India-Canada Strategic Reset
This economic complementarity is further reinforced by deep institutional investment ties and talent mobility, which form the bedrock of the bilateral framework.
