Europe’s Contagion Rate Under Control Sets Path for More Easing

(Bloomberg) -- Europe's coronavirus infections remain under control after weeks of looser restrictions on daily life, paving the way for further steps to lift economies out of deep recession.

Officials in Germany, France, Italy and Spain are closely monitoring contagion data to see if looser controls are backfiring. That appears not to be the case, even if there have been some outbreaks connected to slaughterhouses.

While new cases are key, they're just one of the indicators. Surveys conducted at random and tracking activity at doctors' offices may be a better guide because they could gauge the risk before infections are confirmed.

Here is the situation in continental Europe's major economies, as lockdowns of varying degrees of severity are lifted:

Germany

Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet on Wednesday paved the way for a global travel warning to be lifted for European countries from June 15, the latest move toward a return to normality in Europe's largest economy.

In a first step April 20, German shopkeepers were allowed to start resuming business after the nation appeared to bring the virus under control relatively quickly. Schools were partially reactivated from May 4 and a broader easing was announced two days later, including reopening restaurants and hotels.

Social-distancing rules remain in force, and some regions where infection rates are persistently trending lower are relaxing curbs more quickly.

Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has said that tourism will probably only recover gradually and safety measures will mean that vacationing during the summer holidays won't be the same as before.

France

The latest data for France was skewed by a massive drop in cases after authorities changed their methodology. While the trend to lower infections remains intact, the adjustment underscores the risk of relying exclusively on new cases.

France started to gradually ease its lockdown from May 11, with shops and businesses allowed to reopen under strict hygiene conditions, and some students returning to school, depending on the local situation.

Parks and beaches have reopened, with social-distancing rules in force. Domestic travel restrictions were lifted on Tuesday, and restaurants and cafes were also allowed to operate, although with some restrictions in so-called “orange areas” with relatively high infections rates such as Paris, with only terraces open.

Restrictions are expected to be lifted by June 22, when fitness studios are also hoping to be able to host customers again. The Versailles palace and gardens, the country's third-most visited tourist site after Disneyland Paris and the Louvre Museum, will reopen to the public on Saturday.

Soccer games won't restart before the end of summer and public gatherings of 10 people or more are still banned for the foreseeable future. Borders are expected to reopen to European tourists from June 15. As for tourists beyond the bloc, France is leaving the decision to the EU.

Italy

Italy's final restrictions will be lifted this month, with free movement inside the country and no requirement for travelers to quarantine when arriving in Italy already from Wednesday. Theaters and cinemas can reopen from June 15.

After almost two months, Italy began emerging from lockdown on May 4, when about 4 million people went back to work, citizens were allowed to leave their homes for a run or a walk, and could buy takeout espressos and pizzas. Most shops, bars and restaurants were allowed to reopen from May 18 with distancing rules.

Spain

The central government said May 31 it would hand over powers to manage the winding down of lockdown measures to the country's 17 regional administrations.

Spain began easing the severe restrictions imposed in mid-March on May 10, and the whole nation is now into the second or third stage of a four-phase plan.

The two biggest cities of Madrid and Barcelona entered the second stage on May 25. Social contact is still limited to smaller groups and restaurants and bars are only allowed to open terraces to 30% capacity, with no indoor seating. Hotels can resume business as long as communal spaces aren't used, and shops can operate up to 400 square meters of retail space. In other parts of the country, beaches have also been reopened.

The government has said that, as of July 1, it will no longer impose a two-week quarantine for travelers from abroad. The announcement came as part of a push to revive tourism, which accounts for about 12% of the economy.