Duterte Support Tumbles as Minors Die in Philippine Drug War

(Bloomberg) -- Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte's popularity suffered its biggest fall since he became president in June 2016 after the death of a minor in his deadly drug war and allegations of hidden personal wealth.

Duterte's net satisfaction rating fell 18 percentage points to 48 percent, according to a Social Weather Stations survey of 1,500 adults from Sept. 23 to 27. His trust rating also dropped 15 percentage points to 60 percent, according to the poll posted on its website on Sunday. The biggest declines came among the very poor and those living in urban areas.

“The poll numbers for President Duterte over the first 16 months of his term are very similar to those for his predecessors,” said Malcolm Cook, senior fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore. “Filipino voters seem to give their presidents the benefit of the doubt for the first year and then become more critical. This is what we are seeing with President Duterte.”

Click here to read the results of the survey released on Sunday.

The death of a 17-year-old student in August stirred public anger after CCTV footage showed what appeared to be images of police dragging the student minutes before he was shot and killed. Duterte has vowed justice for the student, reminding police to follow rules of engagement and not to kill unlawfully.

Financial Markets

Financial markets shrugged off the news with stocks surging to a record while the currency was little changed. The benchmark stock index gained 0.6 percent as of 1:30 p.m. in Manila.

Cook said it was still too early to say whether the tide had turned against Duterte, and that the Philippine system of a single term presidency made opinion polls less politically significant. Duterte's satisfaction rating is still classified as "good" by SWS, while his trust rating is considered "very good".

“If, like with Presidents Ramos and Estrada, Duterte's support numbers continue to fall then he and his backers could be in trouble in the 2019 mid-term elections,” Cook said. “Duterte cannot run for re-election and impeachment is very unlikely.”

Duterte was not concerned about his short-term popularity ratings and remained focused on fulfilling his campaign promises, his spokesman Ernesto Abella said at a televised briefing Monday.

“We need to understand that the President is playing actually a long game,” Abella said. “In other words, he's not running short term, trying to be popular like some other personalities out there who are so concerned about their ratings.”

Human-rights groups have routinely accused Duterte's administration of condoning extra-judicial killings in its quest to crack down on illegal drugs. The government says about 3,800 people have died at the hands of police in the drugs war, while Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International say the number is more than 7,000.

Duterte's son has denied involvement in drug smuggling as part of a Senate probe. Duterte is also under investigation by the Ombudsman over allegations that he has hidden wealth -- accusations he has dismissed.

--With assistance from Karl Lester M. Yap

To contact the reporter on this story: Andreo Calonzo in Manila at acalonzo1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Daniel Ten Kate at dtenkate@bloomberg.net, Jason Koutsoukis