Battle For 39 Seats In Tamil Nadu Could Be Closer Than Predicted

Tamil Nadu with 39 parliamentary seats could be among the factors that play a decisive role in who forms the next government in New Delhi.

Opinion polls have largely predicted gains for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam this time after not winning even one seat in 2014. But the battle may be tougher than it appears.

The two Dravidian parties, the DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, typically dominate politics in the southern state. Both face their first general election after the loss of their tallest leaders, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, respectively.

Between the two, the DMK with a clearer succession plan is better placed to make gains, political analysts BloombergQuint spoke with said. The only “chink in the armour”, according to senior journalist GC Shekhar, is the nine seats given to alliance partner Congress.

While the DMK has allied with the Congress, the AIADMK has tied up with the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The AIADMK faces a challenge from TTV Dinakaran who split from the party after Jayalalithaa's death. Though he couldn't get the pressure cooker symbol to fight the election, his candidates could play spoiler for the AIADMK in half-a-dozen seats.

For DMK, MK Stalin's leadership is untested and the party faces its own internal challenges.

And then there are actors-turned-politicians Rajnikanth and Kamal Haasan. Haasan will field contestants for both Lok Sabha elections and assembly bypolls that will be held simultaneously in 18 seats. Rajnikanth, however, said he will focus on assembly polls only in 2021.

But senior journalist Kavitha Muralidharan expects them to have a minimal impact on Tamil Nadu politics.

Watch the entire discussion here: