200,000 Could Die in U.S. Coronavirus Outbreak, Birx Says

(Bloomberg) -- As many as 200,000 Americans are projected to die in the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, a top White House official said, even with another 30 days of the most stringent public health restrictions.

Deborah Birx, the top public health official coordinating the coronavirus task force, revealed the data Tuesday, after the same analysis caused President Donald Trump to retreat from ambitions to urge Americans back to work by Easter.

The government has not previously shared details on its projections for the spread of the virus, which has so far killed more than 3,400 people in the U.S. and infected more than 177,000.

“We're going to go through a very tough two weeks,” Trump said Tuesday at the White House briefing. “Our strength will be tested, our endurance will be tried.”

The information helped persuade Trump to back away from his wish to possibly begin easing “social distancing” guidelines and extend them until April 30, despite the damage those tactics have done to the U.S. economy.

Trump said he envisioned some of the practices -- such as refraining from shaking hands -- as lasting “long into the future.”

Birx and Anthony Fauci, the leading scientists on the White House coronavirus task force, have said that several public studies bolster their belief the virus could exact an even greater death toll in the coming weeks.

The latest projection from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts the death toll will dramatically spike in April from roughly 4,500 to almost 60,000 people -- even with the isolation measures in place around the country. The study indicates the pace of deaths will plateau in May and June and eventually total almost 84,000 by the first week of August.

By April 15, when the death count is expected to peak, more than 2,200 Americans will die of the disease per day, according to the model. Trump and Birx pointed to the University of Washington study on a call with governors on Monday.

The projections assume that “strong social distancing measures” and other restrictions will remain in place throughout the country, even though some large states, such as Florida, have declined to put in place stay-at-home orders that exist in New York, California, Washington and other virus hotspots.

The soaring rate of infections is expected to strain hospitals that are already struggling to care for infected patients and obtain desperately needed medical supplies. The University of Washington study projects that at the outbreak's peak, roughly 220,000 hospital beds and 26,000 ventilators will be needed.

Trump said Tuesday that the federal government has 10,000 ventilators that it has held back in anticipation of a surge in cases over the coming weeks.