Kharif Sowing Off To A Slow Start Due To Weak June Rainfall

A delayed onset of the Southwest monsoon has led to early signs of weakness in sowing patterns, which could impact agricultural output during the Kharif season.

Rainfall during the month of June was running a deficit of 36 percent compared to the Long Period Average, according to data from the India Meteorological Department dated June 27, 2019.

This deficient rainfall has limited area coverage under kharif crops to 146.6 lakh hectares in June 2019, contraction of 9.5 percent compared to last year, showed data from the Department of Agriculture Cooperation & Farmers Welfare.

The lackluster monsoon has forced many a farmer to delay the planting schedule, stated a research note by Edelweiss dated July 1, 2019. “Even though the month of June accounts for only about 15 percent of the Kharif sowing, rainfall in the month is critical as its sets the pace of sowing in Southern India and intentions for the month of July, which accounts for 60 percent of total season's sowing,” said Shubhada Rao and Yuvika Oberoi, economists at Yes Bank in a report on Monday.

A strong revival in monsoon in July along with a good spatial distribution is needed to ensure that overall output during the Kharif season is not hurt significantly, they said.

Crops Hurt The Most

Area under cultivation for most crops, with the exception of rice, saw a fall.

The steepest fall was seen in the pulses category, where area under cultivation has fallen 61.4 percent in June 2019 as against June 2018. Cotton sowing fell by 15.9 percent for the same duration. Sowing of coarse cereals fell by 10.7 percent compared to a year ago.

The lacklustre start to the monsoon has resulted in delay in sowing with pulses, coarse cereals and cotton bearing the maximum impact, said IDFC Bank economists, Indranil Pan and Gaura Sen Gupta in a report dated July 1, 2019. The improvement in the temporal distribution of the monsoon and the likely passing of El Nino are positive developments, noted Pan and Gupta.

States Hurt The Most

According to IDFC Economic Research, the impact is varied across states.

While the impact on UP, Haryana and Punjab may be minimal due to high levels of irrigated area (averaging at 90 percent plus), sowing will be impacted in Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh.

“Reservoir levels are currently tracking at 16 percent of live storage capacity, which is lower than last year and also lower than last 10-years average,” IDFC pointed out.

The decline in water levels has been more concentrated in North, East and Central India, Yes Bank added.

Impact On Inflation?

Monsoons can have a bearing on food production and inflation with only 53 percent of India's cultivated area being irrigated. High frequency retail food prices indicate a mixed trend with prices of cereals and pulses rising in June, while vegetable prices have moderated, noted Pan and Gupta.

However, data from the Food Corporation of India shows that stocks of major agricultural commodities such as rice and wheat are at the highest since June 2013.

Given more than adequate food grain stocks, impact of current weak monsoons over food prices are likely to be minimal, according to IDFC Economic Research. While domestic prices of key kharif crops remain stable, maize price has shot up 48 percent annually, according to Edelweiss. The spike is due to short supply amidst crop loss, in addition to growing feedstock demand by the poultry sector, added the note.