An Early and Likely Normal Monsoon Boosts India’s Crop Outlook

(Bloomberg) -- The forecast of a normal monsoon, which arrived earlier than usual this year, is poised to encourage farmers to expand plantings of major crops, a welcome development as the government grapples with rising food prices.

The India Meteorological Department kept to its earlier prediction of a normal monsoon, which waters more than half of the country's farmland. Cumulative rains are likely to be 103% of the long-term average during the four-month season this year, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the weather bureau, said in an online briefing on Tuesday. That compares with its April prediction of 99%. The forecast has a margin of error of 4%.

Showers during the rainy season not only water fields directly, but fill reservoirs that irrigate winter-sown crops. A good monsoon boosts crop output, while poor rains lead to drinking water shortages, lower harvests and higher imports of some commodities. India is the second-biggest grower of wheat, rice, sugar and cotton, and the top buyer of palm, soybean and sunflower oils.

The monsoon arrived in the southern state of Kerala, its first entry point, three days ahead of its normal onset, according to the weather office. The country is expected to receive ample rains as La Nina, a cooling of the tropical Pacific, is likely to continue, Mohapatra said. La Nina typically brings more rain to parts of Asia, including India. Rains are expected to be more than normal in central and northwestern parts of the country in June, the bureau said.

India's northwestern region is also expected to witness above-normal temperatures in June, the department said. Several parts of the nation faced severe heat waves in the past weeks, with the northern region being the warmest in 122 years in both March and April. The extreme weather slashed crop output and boosted food prices, prompting the government to restrict wheat exports and limit sugar shipments as precautionary measures.

A monsoon is considered normal when rains are 96% to 104% of the long-term average. After reaching Kerala, it moves toward northern parts to cover most of the nation. Any delay or deficit in the early part of the season could delay sowing and hurt crops such as rice and soy, even if rains gather pace later.

Last year's monsoon rains were 99% of the long-term average, according to the weather department. They were 9% higher than normal in 2020 and 10% more than the average in 2019. Rains helped boost food grain output in 2021-22.

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