Strong Headwinds To Slow Global Trade Growth In 2023: WTO

Global trade growth is likely to slow in the closing months of 2022 and into 2023 as the world economy continues to be engulfed by strong headwinds, according to the latest World Trade Organisation (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer.

The current Goods Trade Barometer index reading is 96.2.

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Values greater than 100 signal above-trend expansion while values less than 100 indicate below-trend growth.

The downturn in the index could be attributed to the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, and monetary tightening in major economies, World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Monday.

The index was weighed down by negative readings in sub-indices representing export orders (91.7), air freight (93.3) and electronic components (91.0). Together, these suggest cooling business sentiment and weaker global import demand.

The container shipping (99.3) and raw materials (97.6) indices finished only slightly below the trend but have lost momentum.

"The main exception is the automotive products index (103.8), which rose above trend due to stronger vehicle sales in the United States and increased exports from Japan as supply conditions improved and as the yen continued to depreciate," it said.

The Goods Trade Barometer is released on a quarterly basis depending on data availability.

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