Why Russia Should Love Climate-Change Deniers

(Bloomberg View) -- President Donald Trump and other climate-change deniers probably don't think of themselves as contributing to Russia's future prosperity. But judging from a new International Monetary Fund report, that's what they might be doing.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF offers a sobering analysis of global warming's potential repercussions. Looking at the historical relationship between climate and economic output, it finds that poor countries in hot regions -- home to a majority of the world's population -- are likely to suffer the most as average temperatures rise. Here's a map showing the effect of a one-degree-Celsius temperature increase on per-capita gross domestic product, with countries scaled to reflect their populations:

Gazing at the map, though, I couldn't help but ask: What about the winners? Those green areas in the north certainly suggest that somebody stands to gain. So I downloaded the data to see which countries would get a per-capita GDP boost. Mongolia, Iceland, Finland and Russia topped the IMF's list. Here's the whole thing:

To be sure, this doesn't mean that the countries will turn into tropical paradises. For one, the researchers derived their estimates from the relatively small weather fluctuations of the past -- nobody can really know what will happen if temperatures go beyond what humans have experienced. Also, don't forget bigger natural disasters, forced migrations and all the other ills that climate change is expected to bring.

That said, the data do suggest that Russia could, at least initially, be an unintended beneficiary of what amounts to a global injustice of epic proportions. Look again at that map: The poor countries in the south stand to bear the brunt of a catastrophe created largely by the wealthy countries in the middle, while the countries in the north get a windfall. That's an outcome to which Trump, by downplaying the dangers of global warming and withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, has already made a significant contribution.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Mark Whitehouse writes editorials on global economics and finance for Bloomberg View. He covered economics for the Wall Street Journal and served as deputy bureau chief in London. He was previously the founding managing editor of Vedomosti, a Russian-language business daily.

To contact the author of this story: Mark Whitehouse at mwhitehouse1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net.

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