U.K. Coronavirus Deaths Pass 40,000, Double Projected ‘Good Outcome’

(Bloomberg) --

U.K. authorities said coronavirus transmission rates are close to critical levels in some parts of the country, as the confirmed death toll passed 40,000, raising fresh questions over the government's policy of easing the lockdown.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed there was “a challenge” in northwestern and southwestern England, where the rate of transmission is particularly high, after analysis from officials pointed to evidence that the disease is spreading more quickly again.

The minister's warning came as the official total number of confirmed coronavirus deaths reached 40,261 -- double the 20,000 that the government's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said in March would represent “a good outcome” for Britain.

The toll is another grim milestone for the U.K., which has the second highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any country in the world, after the U.S.. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been battling claims that his administration has botched its response to the pandemic by failing to prepare and moving too slowly to lock down the country.

In recent weeks, the government has begun cautiously to ease the restrictions on the population. But evidence of increases in the so called “R” number -- the rate that the infection is passed on -- revived questions over whether ministers are lifting the lockdown too fast.

‘Exercise Caution'

“There is a challenge in the Northwest of England that we need to address and to a lesser degree in the southwest of England,” Hancock told reporters, after he was asked if restrictions needed to be tightened. “Everybody should exercise caution.”

On Friday, Cambridge University and Public Health England published regional data suggesting that the “R” number is likely to be just over 1 in northwest England, 1 in southwest England, and greater than 0.9 in most other parts of England. That compares with the official national estimate of a U.K.-wide rate of between 0.7 and 0.9 and an English rate estimated at 0.7 to 1.

The number represents the average number of people infected by each person who has the disease and ministers aim to keep it below one to prevent a return of a fast-spreading outbreak and a second peak.

“There is some evidence that R has risen in all regions,” the researchers wrote. “We believe that this is probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings.”

Hancock pushed back against the study, saying that the advice from Vallance's scientific advisory group is based on a range of studies and estimates the “R” number at “below one in all regions.”

The minister said the country is moving toward a more localized approach on lockdowns, with authorities aiming to “spot and crack down on localized outbreaks when they come.”

U.K. deaths passed 20,000 in late April and the number has kept climbing, with another 357 daily deaths announced on Friday, taking the total above 40,000 for the first time.

“The day that the number of deaths has gone over 40,000 is a time of sorrow for us all,” said Hancock. “Each one of these is an impact on a family that will never be the same again. It makes me redouble my determination to deal with this virus, and get that incidence right down.”