Two Women Surge in Race to Take on Trump

(Bloomberg) --

Three years after Hillary Clinton became the first woman to secure a major party nomination for the U.S. presidency, two female Democratic candidates are surging to the top of a crowded field of possible 2020 challengers to President Donald Trump.

Freshman California Senator Kamala Harris has leapfrogged into second place in polls since the first debate, surpassing Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders – who finished second for the nomination in 2016 – and highlighting front-runner Joe Biden's vulnerabilities.

Massachusetts Senator and liberal firebrand Elizabeth Warren also saw a bump after last week's nationally televised face-off, as voters search for a progressive alternative to Biden in the biggest candidate field in history.

Warren also is winning respect from a small but growing circle of senior bankers and hedge fund managers, despite having made Wall Street a top target.

With seven months to go before the contest officially begins in Iowa – and 11 more debates before the party convention next July – it's still early days.

But even though a lack of support from white female voters contributed to Clinton's loss, the surge by Harris and Warren could be a sign that Democrats are open to again picking a woman to take on Trump.

Global Headlines

Merkel's Stand | History might remember that one of Angela Merkel's closing acts as chancellor was to return a German to the helm of the European Union's executive and help elevate two women to the top jobs for the first time. But as Patrick Donahue and Ian Wishart report, she fumbled along the way and was lucky to land on her feet. The queen of Europe is no longer the unassailable force she was, yet the bruising horsetrading also revealed that Merkel remains a woman of principle.

• Click here for a guide to who will lead the bloc's biggest institutions.

Double whammy | The Trump administration abandoned its hard-fought plan to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census after the U.S. Supreme Court challenged its purpose, a win for immigrant-rights groups and Democrats who said the query was designed to dilute their power. The setback came the same day a federal just blocked the administration's plan to jail immigrants seeking asylum and deny them bail if they crossed the U.S. border without permission.

Boiling waters | The U.S. denounced Chinese anti-ship missile tests in the South China Sea as “coercive acts,” underscoring tension between the two powers as they resume trade talks. China fired at least one missile over the weekend and was expected to continue testing through today. There's concern the weapons could target American warships that assert free-navigation rights by sailing close to occupied features in the disputed waters.

• HP, Dell, Microsoft and Amazon are considering shifting “substantial” production capacity out of China to avoid U.S. tariffs, Nikkei reported, amid the continuing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and Washington's blacklisting of Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Khashoggi's murder | The UN expert who investigated the murder of U.S.-based Saudi Arabian columnist Jamal Khashoggi said it was a “state killing” that should prompt world leaders to reconsider holding the Group of 20 summit in Riyadh next year. Agnes Callamard said the meeting must be moved so participants aren't “complicit” in the crime.

Migrants attacked | Libya's UN-backed government accused strongman Khalifa Haftar of ordering an airstrike that killed 40 people at a detention center outside Tripoli housing immigrants believed to be heading to Europe. While Haftar's Libyan National Army reportedly denied responsibility, the attack may increase international pressure for him to return to the UN-sponsored peace process aimed at ending the OPEC member's civil war.

What to Watch

• After a yearlong assault on the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Trump has tapped two economists to join the central bank's board who are likely to support his call for lower interest rates.
• Iran gave the EU until Sunday to comply with its obligations under a 2015 nuclear pact, saying it will restart its Arak nuclear reactor if the deadline isn't met.
• The EU's executive branch will meet today to decide on disciplinary action against Italy over its debt after the country's government took steps to reduce this year's deficit target.

And finally ... Fighter jets and tanks will provide the backdrop for Trump's Independence Day speech tomorrow on the National Mall in a first-of-its-kind July 4 celebration that critics say risks turning the annual event into a de facto Trump rally. The “Salute to America,” as Trump calls it, will feature flyovers and an expanded fireworks show that will briefly ground commercial flights. Trump conceived the changes after his plan for a military parade on Veteran's Day was stymied by complaints from local officials about the cost.

--With assistance from Flavia Krause-Jackson.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael Winfrey at mwinfrey@bloomberg.net, Karl Maier

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