The Retail Apocalypse Isn’t Over Yet

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Intu Properties Plc is in an almighty pickle. The owner of the Lakeside and Trafford Centre shopping malls said on Wednesday that it had been unable to raise between 1 billion pounds ($1.3 billion) and 1.5 billion pounds of equity.

That's not surprising. Even before the outbreak of the new coronavirus, tapping shareholders looked like a long shot. Intu has 4.5 billion pounds of net debt, representing a whopping 68% of the market value of its properties. Despite the value of its estate plunging by 2 billion pounds, more pain on high streets and in malls looks likely. As my colleague Chris Bryant has argued, Intu left it far too late to raise equity.

The failure leaves the company in a bind. Some of its borrowings are at a corporate level, but others are against individual properties. It has almost 1 billion pounds falling due in 2021. Intu can pay the interest on its debts, but covenants look tight. Intu said it was still within its borrowing limits right now, but there was a risk that it could breach covenants at its next test in July.

Susan Munden, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, estimates that a 10% fall in the value of its properties and rental income would require another 300 million pounds of liquidity. And that's before any impact on Intu's tenants from the Covid-19 scare. As I have noted, there is already anecdotal evidence that footfall has been hit by worries about contracting the disease in shops and malls. So far Intu said that it had not seen a meaningful drop.

Options for securing this funding are limited.

Intu could look to sell more assets. It has already offloaded its interest in two Spanish sites and part of a mall in Derby. It still owns 100% of the Trafford and Lakeside centers, so it could bring in partners there too.  

But given the scale of the crisis, some form of debt-for-equity swap looks inevitable. The shares, which have fallen more than 90% over the past year, traded at less than 10 pence on Wednesday. At this level, they are pricing in expectations that there's a chance of the equity being wiped out. That's a boon for short sellers, including Crispin Odey, but a worry for long-suffering shareholders, as well as bondholders who would likely take a haircut in a radical restructuring.

For all its woes, Intu has some decent assets. Some malls have adjoining land, which could be used for residential development.

One wild card could be Mike Ashley, majority owner of Frasers Group Plc, formerly Sports Direct. He is no stranger to a bargain, and will have many stores in Intu malls. Frasers shareholders likely wouldn't welcome his intervention, especially after his debacle at Debenhams. But Intu investors and bondholders might. The property company certainly needs a solution and fast.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Melissa Pozsgay at mpozsgay@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the consumer and retail industries. She previously worked at the Financial Times.

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