Seven & I Rallies 8.9% as Investors Embrace $21 Billion Deal

(Bloomberg) -- Seven & i Holdings Co. shares climbed the most since March as investors turned more enthusiastic over the Japanese company's $21 billion agreement to buy Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s gas-station business.

The world's largest convenience store operator saw its shares drop 4.8% in Tokyo on Monday after announcing its biggest acquisition ever, amid concerns the deal was too expensive. But the stock rebounded 8.9% on Tuesday as investors reassessed the benefits of the deal and analysts applauded Seven & i's plans for global growth.

The operator of the 7-Eleven franchise agreed to buy 3,900 Speedway outlets from Marathon to clinch a dominant position of almost 14,000 stores in the U.S. and Canada. The transaction will give 7-Eleven a presence in 47 out of the top 50 metropolitan markets.

7-Eleven Owner Beats Out Rival With $21 Billion Bet on U.S.

“The price paid for Speedway is not overly expensive, given the importance of Speedway to maintain Seven & i's dominance in the U.S. convenience store business,” LightStream Research analyst Oshadhi Kumarasiri said in a note on Smartkarma.

Still, Seven & i's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's Investors Service, citing “an expected spike in leverage” as well as the company's increasingly aggressive financial policy. S&P Global Ratings put Seven & i on credit watch with negative implications.

The deal is the latest and boldest move in Seven & i's global plan. Faced with a declining population at home and seeking to grow beyond its existing U.S. footprint, Seven & i embarked on an expansion plan that included the $3.3 billion purchase of Sunoco LP stations and stores three years ago.

Not ‘Crazy'

“This isn't as crazy as people think it is,” said Michael Allen, an analyst covering Japanese retailers at Jefferies LLC. “The U.S. market has recovered a lot faster than the Japan market, so I don't see any issues with that bet.”

Allen raised the recommendation on the company to a buy from hold.

Others had a more cautious view. Tomoichiro Kubota, senior market analyst at Matsui Securities, questioned the deal's growth potential.

“The current model is to have customers who stop by for gasoline to pay a visit to buy from convenience stores,” he said. “But if you think about the possibility of gasoline no longer being in demand, the question is what will happen then.”

The combination of gasoline and convenience stores with expanded offerings, and experience from previous integrations, will help the company grow despite the uncertainty and industry turmoil wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, according to Ryuichi Isaka, Seven & i's chief executive officer.

‘First Step'

“This is a once-in-a-millennium opportunity,” Isaka said on the conference call. “This is a historic first step as we seek to become a global retailer.”

Isaka has overseen a broad restructuring of the Japanese firm since taking the helm in 2016. The company has been pressured by a saturated convenience store market in Japan and a tight labor market that makes its 24-7 operating model challenging. Seven & i shares have slumped 17% this year.

Seven & i was seeking a deal earlier this year to buy Speedway, but hit the pause button after offering $22 billion, Bloomberg reported in March. Not only is the deal $1 billion below that earlier offer, but the yen has strengthened, resulting in a dollar-based discount of at least 5% from a February peak.

The price values the Speedway operation at 13.7 times earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company said the deal multiple would be closer to seven times after tax savings and an estimated $1 billion in divestitures.

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