Russia’s Toxic Oil Sends Tanker Rates Into a Frenzy

(Bloomberg) -- For clues on how toxic Russian oil has become, look no further than the trade for tankers that export it.

It now costs about $3.5 million to hire a tanker to deliver a million barrels to Italy from Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk -- a voyage that should take no longer than a week. That's a more-than 300% gain from before the invasion of Ukraine began.

It also assumes traders can find an owner willing to risk letting their ship enter a region where five merchant ships have been blown up in the week since the attack started, and where NATO has warned of an increasing risk of collateral damage to vessels.

Right now, there's no legal impediment to collecting the nation's supply, but oil and shipping markets are twisting on one huge uncertainty: Could governments sanction Russia's energy exports in what would be the most aggressive legislative response possible to the attack? Until there's a definitive answer, some tanker owners will be reluctant to transport the barrels, and some refineries will look elsewhere for supply.

That's left oil traders being careful too. On Wednesday, Russian oil producer Surgutneftegas PJSC failed to award tenders -- for an unprecedented third time -- to sell about 6 1/2 million barrels of Urals crude. Since the war began, offers to sell the grade at record discounts on a pricing window run by S&P Global Platts have elicited no bids. It increasingly amounts to an embargo in all but name.

On Thursday, Trafigura offered the grade at a $22.70 a below the Platts benchmark Dated Brent, surpassing by about $4 the previous record discount offered. Again, there were no bids.

See also: Latest Russia Oil Offer in Asia Points to Far Weaker Pricing (1)

“Russian energy flows, in theory, are not sanctioned but everyone is hedging their bets for now,” said Anoop Singh, head of tanker research at Braemar ACM Shipbroking Pte.

Big Earnings

Rates to ship Russian crude to Europe from the Black or Baltic seas, the nation's two main western outlets, now cost about 291 and 516 industry-standard Worldscale points, showed Baltic Exchange in London. Both were below 100 points before the attack.

The figures equate to current daily earnings of about $150,000 and $241,000 a day respectively from the two areas -- multiples higher than prior to the invasion.

In Asia, the cost of hauling Russia's ESPO crude to China soared more than 80% on Thursday compared with a week earlier, according to Baltic Exchange data. An aframax that can typically carry about 600,000 barrels was booked this week to load from the Russia port of Kozmino from March 10-12 at about $875,000, according to shipbrokers and fixtures seen by Bloomberg.

While wider tanker markets initially tracked rates for Russia-related trades higher after the invasion, there were signs of a thawing as of Thursday morning, said shipbrokers in Europe.

“Despite the lack of official sanctions, Urals crude oil exports are facing many hurdles as increased tension in the Black Sea exposes shipowners to more risks, and it's the same trend from the Baltic,” said Ruben Sanchez Agea, a shipping analyst at Medco Shipbrokers SRL in Madrid. “Other markets are losing momentum as more shipowners are once again willing to cover usual traffics not involved in war zones.”

Frozen Trade

Energy Aspects Ltd. estimated earlier this week that 70% of Russia's oil sales were “frozen” because of the shipping and trading logjam, a figure that could drop to 20% once there's sanctions certainty. Even the lower level would deprive the global tanker market of a swath of cargoes.

The tanker market was in a slump before the invasion because OPEC+ nations have kept oil supply off the market to boost oil prices. As such, any material loss of Russian cargoes could exacerbate the surplus of ships that caused the weakness.

Singh said there's been rush to find ships to collect oil from locations other than Russia that's been beneficial to rates in those other markets. Traders in Asia have struggled this week to book vessels for cargoes, whether that's to be loaded from the Middle East or the U.S.

In practice, that will only be bullish for medium-to-longer term for tanker markets if other producers can maintain higher levels of exports. And there's little sign they can.

“By and large we now see a two-tier market,” said Halvor Ellefsen, a tanker broker at Fearnleys A/S in Oslo. “Russia-linked business is living its own life, separated from the general market, which is starting to see signs of cooling off.”