(Bloomberg) -- Mandarins are on track to surpass oranges as the most-consumed fresh citrus in the U.S. over the next few years, helped by its easy-to-peel nature.
American's current per capita consumption of oranges sits around 9 pounds a year. That compares with 7 pounds for easy-peelers -- which include mandarins, tangerines, tangelos and clementines -- but it has been on a steady climb. If that trend holds and supply is ample, oranges may slide to 8.5 pounds a year by 2025, closely matching mandarins and their cousins, with mandarins taking the lead after that, according to David Magana, senior fresh produce analyst for agricultural lender Rabobank International.
The combination of convenience, healthfulness and taste will continue to drive consumer demand. Steady prices received by U.S. easy-peel growers, increased production costs and supply-side constraints like water and labor will limit acreage expansion in the short run, though. Lack of orange availability has led to lower consumption.
Read more: Orange crop killer, frosts strain world's dwindling juice supply
Since the 1990s, U.S. production of the easy-peel group has trailed consumption and the gap is widening. While California's crop shows steady gains, according to Rabobank, Florida is on the decline amid a crop disease decimating groves. Imports account for about one third of America's rising demand.
Domestic citrus supply is seen hitting a record low this year, while consumer demand will remain strong. That will be good news for countries like Chile, the main supplier of easy-peel citrus for the North American market, followed by Peru, Argentina and Uruguay. Europe, which receives a lot of mandarin imports from South America, may see an oversupply amid slowing economic growth and demand challenges posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
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