Russian Troops Aren’t the Answer for Kazakhstan

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Appealing for outside help to quell protests that have rocked Kazakhstan this week, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev claimed his government was under attack by “terrorist” groups that had “received extensive training abroad.” In fact, ordinary Kazakhs have plenty reason of their own to be angry. Tokayev would be better off addressing that frustration than trying to violently suppress it.

The protests began in remote western Kazakhstan, after the lifting of gas subsidies on Jan. 1 caused prices to double. The region's oil workers have long resented seeing their living standards stagnate despite the country's natural riches. A host of wider grievances helped the unrest spread quickly: Rising inflation has eaten into pocketbooks and deepened already stark inequality. A wealthy elite is seen as siphoning off much of the country's oil and mineral wealth. State services have languished, even as citizens have been allowed little say in their own governance.

Tens of thousands of people took to the streets, overrunning government buildings, police stations and the airport in Almaty; by Friday, when Tokayev claimed order had largely been restored, more than three dozen protesters and police had been reported killed. Crowds directed their ire in particular at Nursultan Nazarbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan for three decades before installing Tokayev as his successor in 2019. Even after stepping down, Nazarbayev continued to wield influence as the head of the country's security council, while his family members grew rich through stakes in critical businesses.

Continued unrest could have wider repercussions. Kazakhstan produces more than 40% of the world's uranium and 2% of its crude oil. It's also been an island of relative stability within Central Asia, where chaos from Afghanistan threatens to spread.

In his bid to reestablish order, Tokayev appears to have sidelined Nazarbayev, replacing him as head of the security council and removing a loyalist who had overseen the security services. He also fired his own cabinet and rescinded the fuel-price increases. At the same time, however, the president has called in forces from the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and issued a shoot-to-kill order against protesters.

A hard line is almost certain to backfire. Kazakhs pride themselves on the relatively independent course their country has charted since the fall of the Soviet Union. They will not welcome Russian troops on their streets, especially if they're seen to be taking part in killing protesters. The longer those forces stay, the more isolated Tokayev will be — and the more beholden to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

If only to improve his own standing, Tokayev should limit outside troops to guarding critical infrastructure and seek their swift removal as soon as calm returns. He also needs to acknowledge the legitimate grievances of ordinary Kazakhs and start taking concrete steps to address them. He himself has proposed several needed reforms in the past, including granting citizens greater say in local governance. Now he needs to follow through — allowing real scope for political activity, appointing more capable figures to improve government services, and showing he's serious about addressing official corruption.

That's unlikely to be the advice he's hearing from Putin. One thing the protests should have taught Kazakh leaders, however, is the danger of not listening to their own people.

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