Jefferies Sees 25% Drop in India Stocks If BJP Loses 2024 Polls
(Bloomberg) --
Equity markets in India will fall if Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party fails to retain power in national elections due next year, according to Chris Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies LLC.
If the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party faces a surprise defeat in the national polls, as happened in 2004, “then I would expect a 25% correction if not more,” Wood said at an industry event organized by the Business Standard newspaper in Mumbai.
Wood said the government has implemented reforms such as the ambitious output-linked incentive programs to attract global supply lines, which will not be undone, but “there will be a big correction,” he said. “The momentum is such that it will bounce back.”
In May 2004, stock markets in India plunged about 20% in two days after the BJP-led government suffered a surprise defeat in national elections. The markets recouped some of the losses over the next few days after a Congress party-led coalition government assured the country and markets of retaining policies aimed at opening the South Asian economy.
“India is the best growth story in the world going forward and most particularly in Asia and obviously the problems in China have further cemented that view,” Wood said.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
-
Talking Points This Week: Leadership Shock At Nvidia, Earnings Strength, And The Fog Over Hormuz
The Anthropic IPO pricing and first trading day, Nvidia's upcoming earnings, and any fresh signals from Iran will set the tone for the following week.
-
Signature Play: The Classic Cocktail Is Dead. Or Is It?
Classic cocktails are disappearing from India's cocktail menus. But they're still being ordered, taught to bartenders and borrowed from. So, who's really having the last drink?
-
A New Samvat Wishlist: Inclusive Prosperity And Human Development
India has strengthened its economic foundations through infrastructure, digital access and enterprise. Its next growth chapter must deepen productivity, create better livelihoods and widen participation in prosperity.
-
Love, Sex Aur Dhokha: The Audacious Plot To Spy On Jensen Huang
A Taipei dinner, a Singapore chip buyer and a suspected Chinese asset: inside the alleged spy operation that got close to NVIDIA's Jensen Huang.
-
Ten Things I Learnt This Samvat
Patience can be a trap. Cheap stocks can stay cheap. Leverage can wipe you out. What did Samvat 2082 teach us? Niraj Shah writes on 10 lessons from the year gone by.
-
Talking Points This Week: Tech Nerves, FII Buying, And A Faraway Banking Shock
The global markets are not shining this Diwali. The exception in the large markets is, India.
-
Midterm Rally Lasted A Day. The Hard Reality Of A Divided US May Last Two Years | Opinion
Between a contested AI boom, a debt ceiling that arrives in 2027 and a president with every incentive to act alone, the next two years may prove more volatile than the first day's rally suggests.
-
Blue Wave Will Derail the AI Trade but Won't Dismantle the AI Era | Unhedged Position
The Democrats' sweep of the US Congress will see politics collide with economic forces both over the long and short term.
-
It's Time To Take The GST Council's Bet On Trust Global
Payment records can prove India's services exports, and clear, proportionate rules can bring foreign digital sellers into the tax net.
-
Opinion | India at 38: From Innovation Overperformer to Innovation Powerhouse
India now has 453 VC-backed deep science startups, 18 of them late-stage, after 117 percent growth since 2020. Laurus Labs, at USD 9.3 billion, is the most valuable deep science company in any middle-income economy outside China.
