Italy's Five Star Movement Should Now Think Long Term

(Bloomberg View) -- Italians clearly sought to disrupt a political system that they perceive as self-serving and out of touch with their daily lives. I ran for office in that election along with European Commissioner Emma Bonino as part of a pro-European movement in the center-left alliance. Needless to say, we lost. The winners Sunday were two populist parties who represent everything our mainstream coalition rejects. But I have some reason to be hopeful just the same.

After decades of economic stagnation, growing inequality and concerns about immigration (the latter grossly amplified by social media), Italians turned their back on mainstream political forces. The Five Star Movement, the largest vote-winner, appeals mainly to the disaffected middle class, while the League, the other populist winner, draws support from the working class and small business community. While the League is by far the most influential political force in the north, Five Star won virtually every constituency in the south. Together they have more than 50 percent of the proportional vote.

Five Star's leader is the 31-year-old Luigi di Maio, who was almost randomly selected by Rousseau, the party's direct democracy internet platform with proprietary software. League leader Matteo Salvini is the Viktor Orban of Italian politics; like the Hungarian autocrat, he is an anti-immigrant nationalist politician. If either lead a government, or if they rule together, it would mark the first time that a stridently euroskeptic government is in charge of one of the founding countries of the European Union and the third-largest economy in the euro zone.

So where does the hopefulness come from? Despite its dogmatic "direct democracy" credo, Five Star represents the only fresh attempt at drawing citizens into politics by lowering its high entry barriers and asking the right questions. It's no surprise that angry middle-aged workers and unemployed young people alike massively backed the movement.

Five Star has had its share of scandals, but in its major battles, Five Star has been on the right side of history. It fights corruption, advocates for more transparency in government, and typically communicates in plain language through its website. In other words, Five Star has shown its readiness to address the concerns that any progressive political force should tackle, but that former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party (PD), the leading Italian progressive party, failed to do. As such, Five Star must coalesce with other political forces, including possibly PD itself now that Renzi has conceded defeat and stepped down.

Indeed, while the key theme underlying the election was a largely misplaced anti-immigrant backlash that echoed the anger expressed in previous elections in the West, Five-Star shares some common ground with other political forces, ranging from the promotion of civil rights to the fight against inequality.

Five Star's normalization would require it to change: It would have to leave aside the bigotry and bizarre anti-science agenda that has dogged some of its candidates and platform, and render its governance structure more transparent and accountable. That won't be easy: The experience of the past few years has shown Five Star to be opaque, top-down and authoritarian in the way it is run, a reality its supporters either ignore or excuse. That would have to change, and it's not clear Five Star has the will or ability to make this happen.

It would also need to clarify its ambiguous position on Europe. Over the last 20 years, Italian politicians -- both from the right and the left -- have used Europe as a scapegoat for Italy's home-grown problems. Much of this EU-bashing fueled the rise of an anti-EU sentiment in the country, giving Five Star the momentum that propelled it onto the national and European stage; the party's deputies currently sit in the European Parliament in a group with the British anti-Europe UKIP party, which campaigned for Brexit.

Its euroskepticism may have helped Five Star, but its real appeal didn't depend on that part of its platform. Rather, Five Star won because it had none of the baggage of the sclerotic mainstream parties and an entirely different way of operating.

There are signs suggesting Five Star might be ready to modify its euroskeptic views. Indeed, in the run-up to the election, the party toned down the anti-EU rhetoric and set aside its call for a referendum on membership of the euro. In that, it seems to be responding to public opinion. In the aftermath of Brexit, and with an economy that is finally growing by almost 1.5 percent a year, anti-EU sentiment has softened.

If Five Star were able to bring the same freshness and irreverence to European politics it has brought to Italian politics, that would be no bad thing for Europe either. Yet for this to happen, di Maio and Five Star need to decide whether to side with the likes of Orban and Polish politician Jaroslaw Kaczynski, or with the French and German leaders, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel, as they negotiate European reforms and further integration.

Five Star's immediate challenge is negotiating its role in a new Italian government. That won't be easy. But with European elections on the horizon next year, Five Star's decision on where it stands on Europe may have more far-reaching implications. My side may have lost the vote in Italy, but I see that as not so much a rejection of Europe as a rejection of business as usual. Five Star's choice is whether to harness that discontent to play a constructive role in Italian and European politics, or simply to milk it for fleeting gain.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Alberto Alemanno is the Jean Monnet Professor of EU Law at HEC Paris and author of "Lobbying for Change: Find Your Voice to Create a Better Society."

To contact the author of this story: Alberto Alemanno at alemanno@hec.fr.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Therese Raphael at traphael4@bloomberg.net.

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