Nuclear Chief Says His Trip to Iran May ‘Pave Way’ for Deal

(Bloomberg) -- The head of the world's atomic watchdog said his trip on Saturday to Tehran could “pave the way” to reviving the Iranian nuclear deal, an agreement that would return the country's oil exports to global markets.

IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi's optimism was echoed by diplomats in Vienna, where they've been wrangling over the final few outstanding issues.

Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's envoy, said the sides were “on the finish line” with a deal possible within 48 hours. Other negotiators also said privately they expected an agreement by early next week.

Iran has demanded the International Atomic Energy Agency conclude its stalled probe of past nuclear work as part of any deal to reactivate the 2015 accord, which capped the Islamic Republic's atomic program in exchange for sanctions relief.

Western negotiators have so far said that's not possible because the IAEA works independently and they don't have the power to short-circuit an investigation. But Grossi signaled Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg Television that while a “number of issues” need to be clarified before he can close the probe, a deal might be achieved.

“People cannot foresee a return to the JCPOA if there are unresolved issues with the IAEA,” said the Argentine diplomat. “This is why it is so important that we find a way forward. It doesn't mean that I am going to solve this by traveling to Tehran over the weekend. It means we are going to try to see eye-to-eye, understand each other and see what needs to be done.”

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Reviving the seven-year-old landmark nuclear agreement with Iran often referred to as the JCPOA would mean relief for global energy markets. Oil has surged to $116 a barrel amid Russia's war on Ukraine and the reluctance of other oil-producing nations to significantly increase production.

Traders have been expecting a return of Iranian barrels to global markets this year. The Persian Gulf nation, which holds the world's No. 2 natural gas and No. 4 crude reserves, could probably raise exports by around 1 million barrels a day within months of any deal, according to traders.

The original accord gave IAEA monitors unprecedented supervision over Iranian nuclear facilities, which they partially lost after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement to impose sweeping U.S. sanctions.

The agency has been probing the source of uranium particles detected at several undeclared locations in Iran. European and U.S. diplomats have previously threatened to censure Tehran over its lack of cooperation with the IAEA, which convenes its next board meeting on March 7.

Negotiators who are in their 11th month of on-and-off diplomacy in Vienna have been consulting with IAEA officials as talks wind to their conclusion, Grossi said. Diplomats, who have repeatedly blown past earlier time limits, have warned there are just days to salvage the accord.

“These negotiations are coming to a decisive point,” said Grossi, whose previous attempts to advance his agency's investigation through negotiations have failed. “We are working very hard to come to an agreement.”

At the Munich Security Conference last month, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said it was essential that the IAEA continue to investigate Iran in the event of a revived nuclear deal, which Israel opposes. The agency probe was triggered by a cache of documents smuggled out of Iran by Israeli spies.

The U.S. under Trump unilaterally ditched the 2015 accord four years ago and applied economic penalties, prompting Iran to retaliate by enriching uranium close to the levels needed for a bomb. The standoff fueled conflicts in the Persian Gulf as well as attacks on shipping in waterways key to global commerce.