India's Low-Skilled Emigration Boom Is Ebbing

In September 2020, 39-year-old Biju moved back to his ancestral home in a tranquil village in Palakkad, Kerala. He had spent over eight years working, first as a taxi driver and then at a shopping mall, in Dubai. But by then, he was done.

The pandemic upended retail businesses in Dubai, like in the rest of the world. Biju and a lot of his Indian co-workers were laid off by his employer. After a few weeks of job hunting, Biju's brother-in-law asked if he would return to his village and work at a large jewellery store chain. Biju did not waste any time.

"Most of my friends have also made the move back," he said. "Anyway the pay was not rising there (in Dubai) and if you compare domestic salaries, things are comparable. So it made it sense to come home."

Biju's story is one of many low-skilled Indian migrant workers who feel disillusioned by the promise of a better future abroad. Since 2014, India has seen fewer and fewer workers migrate abroad. That's when not enough jobs are being created at home to absorb crores entering the labour force every year.

From more than 8 lakh workers who sought emigration clearance from the government in 2014, the number dropped to around 82,000 in 2019, right before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, according to annual data available with the Ministry of External Affairs.

Emigration clearance is a government approval typically accorded by the MEA for low-skilled workers who go overseas for work. Currently, such a nod is needed for 18 countries.

The number rose over the last two years but is still lower than 2014. In the first nine months of 2022, 2.77 lakh clearances were given by the government, the MEA dashboard shows.

It's not just that the number of low-skilled workers emigrating has fallen. Where they come from has also changed. Traditional hubs such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu are making way for Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Rajasthan.

Between January 2021 and July 2022, 3.22 lakh Indians received emigration clearance, according to MEA data. Of this, 1.02 lakh came from UP, 55,607 came from Bihar. Rajasthan and West Bengal added about 25,000 each.

In comparison, only 18,815 hailed from Kerala and 19,539 from Tamil Nadu.

Kerala was active in the emigration space in the 1970s, '80s and '90s primarily due to its demography, according to S Irudaya Rajan, chairman of International Institute of Migration and Development.

"Usually people between the ages of 20 and 34 migrate," Rajan told BQ Prime during an interview. "UP, Bihar, Rajasthan have the favourable demography right now."

According to the owner of a recruitment agency, there has been a clear drop in low-skilled labour from South Indian states over the last few years.

Earlier, workers would agree to tougher living conditions and basic pay in the hope of getting a job abroad, the person said on the condition of anonymity. But as the level of education has increased and local employment opportunities have improved, demands from migrant workers looking for jobs has also gone up, the person said.

In traditionally lucrative centres such as the United Arab Emirates, the wages have fallen significantly, leading to fewer people migrating to these locations. Those who are willing to go also face competition from neighbours.

"The North Indians are competing with labour from Nepal and Bangladesh for wages," Rajan said. "The labourers from these other geographies are known to charge much lower, which gives them an edge over Indian workers."

The shortfall in emigration does not bode well for a country like India. About 20 crore Indians enter the labour force every year, Rajan said. It is not possible for any country to offer domestic employment for such a large force.

"It is essential for the government to invest in skilling this labour force so they may find more work in other countries."