Honeywell Sees Private-Jet Flights Recovering to Normal in 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Private-jet flights are poised to regain their 2019 levels next year as the industry rebounds from a much shallower decline than after the 2008 financial crisis, according to Honeywell International Inc.

The drop in takeoffs and landings will ease to only about 15% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier and will recover fully by mid-2021, Honeywell said Tuesday in an annual survey of 1,050 private-jet operators. By comparison, flights tumbled 76% in April in the U.S., Canada and the Caribbean, according to another data provider, Argus International Inc.'s TraqPak database.

“This definitely is something that shows a robust recovery in a space where we saw significant reductions in flight hours in April and May,” said Shantanu Vaish, director of strategy and industry marketing for Honeywell's Aerospace unit, which makes jet engines and cockpit controls.

The declines earlier this year mirrored the collapse of commercial airline flights as countries locked down to stop the spread of the coronavirus. Now private flying, which for many passengers generates less health anxiety than traveling in a plane full of strangers, has rebounded more quickly despite a severe economic downturn and continued travel restrictions.

Sales of private jets will take longer to recover, Charlotte, North Carolina-based Honeywell said. New aircraft deliveries will drop to 491 this year from 720 in 2019, which was the best year since the Great Recession more than a decade ago.

Deliveries won't get back to their 2019 level until 2025, Honeywell said. The company is predicting handovers of 7,300 aircraft over the next decade, a 3.9% reduction from last year's 10-year forecast.

More encouragingly, the pandemic hasn't spurred a wave of forced aircraft sales like in 2008, Vaish said. About 10% of all respondents to the Honeywell survey plan to shed a plane without replacing it over the next five years -- only slightly higher than the 8% in last year's report.

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