From Rio to Amazon, Virus Flare-Ups Flash Warning in Brazil

(Bloomberg) -- Health experts are sounding the alarms on a sudden rise in coronavirus cases in early Brazilian hotspots like Rio de Janeiro and the Amazonian capital of Manaus months after residents of those cities thought the worst had passed.

While weekly infections are still well below the levels seen back in May, the increases are warning signs that local authorities may need to impose restrictions again to keep public hospitals from reaching capacity. The governor of Amazonas state and mayor of the capital in Manaus have already bickered publicly over whether to impose some sort of a quarantine to slow the spread.

In Rio, a seaside metropolis of more than 8 million people, leaders continue to reopen the economy despite the uptick with some fans allowed back into soccer stadiums and plans to reopen theaters soon. Scenes of packed outdoor bars and beaches have again become common place.

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The flare-ups in Brazil, which is behind only the U.S. in total deaths from Covid-19 and is third globally in cases, come as governments across Europe tighten measures to battle a second wave and New York City sees new clusters. Fernando Barros, a professor at the Federal University of Pelotas who helped conduct a national study on coronavirus antibodies, believes Brazil is seeing the first signs of a second wave of its own.

“It's a lesson that you can't reduce the level of social distance before the vaccine,” Barros said. “And yes, we have a second wave.”

It's not that Brazil really got over a first wave from the virus as daily case counts still clock in routinely at more than 30,000 with fatalities around 800 every 24 hours. But the long plateau has begun to dip slightly in recent weeks with Folha de S.Paulo declaring the pandemic finally in deceleration on its front page Thursday.

After more than two months with 250,000 new cases per week, the government has reported on average 200,000 new infections in the past three weeks. Deaths, which peaked at more than 7,600 a week, are now around 5,000.

Read More: Brazil Hits 4 Million Covid Cases While Life Gets Back to Normal

President Jair Bolsonaro, who was himself infected, has insisted that lockdowns can be more fatal than the virus for working class citizens and that the “stay at home” slogan is for the weak. He's urged governors and mayors to reopen nationwide.

Manaus has seen more than 2,000 new infections for two weeks in a row. It's a fraction of the 4,500 it saw at the height of the crisis in April and May, when hospitals and cemeteries couldn't keep up with the outbreak, but it's the highest reading since July. The city, located deep inside the Amazon rainforest, has already tightened some controls on bars and shops. Many towns in the state are only reachable by boat and isolated Indigenous communities have also suffered from outbreaks.

In recent days, Rio's occupancy rate of intensive care beds reserved for Covid-19 patients at public hospitals surged to 86% before dipping back to 77%. Weekly cases have risen to about 9,000 a week from 7,000 in July.

“Critical zone”

The Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, known as Fiocruz, warned that Rio is in a “critical zone,” with Amazonas and Rio Grande do Norte states also a cause for concern.

“In the Brazilian context, where there is a general lack of tests and an uncontrolled pandemic, a second wave is expected in other places too,” said Domingos Alves, researcher at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Sao Paulo. “Sao Paulo, Maranhao and Ceara states are practicing reckless openings.”

Officials in Rio state said current numbers do not indicate a second wave and that there are enough ICU beds available, while authorities in Manaus said the city is taking adequate measures to protect its citizens.

Herd immunity

Brazilian cities and states took wildly different approaches to the virus, which first arrived in the richer capitals and then began making its way inland. The country, which has some states the size of France and poor areas where everything from hospital beds to clean water is lacking, has become one of the hardest-hit by the pandemic. More than 4.8 million Brazilians have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and about 144,000 have died.

The new rise in Manaus weakens the argument that herd immunity would protect against further breakouts. The Institute of Tropical Medicine of the University of Sao Paulo published pre-prints of studies that have not yet been vetted or published in a scientific journal with estimates that between 44% and 66% of the population of the city had been infected.

“A large number of people acquired antibodies in Manaus, a rate above or close to so-called herd immunity, but it doesn't mean the epidemic is over,” said researcher Ester Sabino, who led the study.

Elsewhere in Latin America

• Argentina again posted a daily record in cases with 14,392 new infections and another 419 deaths.
• Argentina's metals and minerals production is being sideswiped by Covid-19 travel restrictions that make it hard to move people and goods.
• Mexico has lost or discarded 93,803 results of Covid-19 tests throughout the pandemic, health officials said.
• Coronavirus Tracker: Global Cases 34 Million; Deaths 1.01

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