Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Written by
Sam Unsted
Written by

Sam Unsted

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(Bloomberg) --

Good morning. U.S. payrolls are likely to dominate the day, the future of the U.K. is moving to the center of the Brexit debate and the Deutsche Bank saga rolls on. Here's what's moving markets.

Payrolls Day

It's going to be a live U.S. payrolls report on Friday as traders look for pointers as to whether the numbers will reinforce the dovish shift at the Federal Reserve. The expectation is that job growth will have recovered from June, but not at the same kind of pace seen a year before. Note too that the last time the report was published on the day after the Independence Day holiday Treasury yields jumped significantly.

Future of the Union

The future of the union of the United Kingdom is becoming a key battleground for the candidates aiming to be the next prime minister, with warnings from the incumbent Theresa May not to outline any policies that risk a breakup. Boris Johnson said delivering Brexit would be key to this and both he and Jeremy Hunt have refused to rule out leaving without a deal. Whoever wins, there will be some high-caliber rebels to face down.

Hunt for Yield

For anyone who has not been watching developments in global bond markets, start doing so with immediate effect. German bund yields sank below the European Central Bank's deposit rate for the first time on Thursday, a development likely to drive investors yet further into the realm of riskier debt from the like of Italy and Greece, plus plenty of emerging market assets. And given European Central Bank policymakers think the slowdown is no longer temporary, bonds are likely to continue in the same vein.

Deutsche Saga

It's been a week of intense speculation about what steps Deutsche Bank AG is going to adopt over the weekend to restructure the business and attempt to restore it to health. The cuts the bank intends to make in its U.S. business may go deeper than previously anticipated and there are questions about how much the changes will cost as Deutsche considers offloading unwanted assets and reshuffling management teams. Watch out for more before this pivotal weekend for the bank.

Coming Up...

Asian stocks were little changed in thin trading in Asia after the U.S. holiday and ahead of the payrolls report. European stock futures are also pointing to a muted start to Friday. Gold is headed for its longest stretch of gains for eight years and oil is set for a weekly decline as worries about the economy outweigh OPEC supply cuts. German factory orders data will be closely scrutinized given the state of play in Europe's economy, as will house prices in the U.K.