Europe Has Run Out of Excuses for Not Sanctioning Iran

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- For the past two weeks, the Iranian regime's catastrophic mishandling of the coronavirus crisis and the immediate danger this poses to neighboring countries have distracted attention from the more traditional ways in which the Islamic Republic menaces the world. But a pair of alarming reports on Iran's nuclear activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency have just come as a bracing reminder.

These reports should shock the European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal out of their complacency over the regime's intentions, and end their foot-dragging on penalizing Iran for violating the agreement.

The UN's nuclear watchdog says its inspectors have been barred access to some locations where nuclear-related activities are known to have taken place. “The agency identified a number of questions related to possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities at three locations in Iran that had not been declared by Iran,” the IAEA said in a report.

A second report, seen by Bloomberg, confirms that Iran has continued to expand its nuclear stockpile, violating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action it agreed with the major world powers. It now has more than 1,020 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, material enough to be turned, with additional processing, into a nuclear weapon if the regime wants one.

That's not a very big “if.” When you add to these reports Iran's long history of secret nuclear development — suspended only when it was caught in the act — and the regime's more recent threats, the inescapable conclusion is that the regime covets the Bomb. After all, there is no other rational reason for its nuclear program. 

Yet for European votaries of the nuclear deal, the second IAEA report is just another opportunity to lament the Trump administration's 2018 decision to pull the U.S. out of the deal and impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic. They argue that Iran had no option but to break its end of the bargain and build up its enriched-uranium stockpile. Never mind that, in so doing, the regime in Tehran is increasing the prospect of war, the very thing the Europeans claim they wish to forestall.     

These JCPOA partisans are conspicuously mum about the first IAEA report, unable to match even their milquetoast response last month, when the regime said it would withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty if European nations referred its violations of the deal to the UN Security Council. The Europeans were too busy blaming Trump for torching the deal to notice that Iran was threatening a much more dangerous conflagration.

Just last week, they joined China and Russia in a statement of support for the JCPOA. Although they have triggered the deal's dispute mechanism in reaction to Iran's continued enrichment, they remain hesitant to impose any costs on Tehran. “We are in agreement not to go directly to a strict time limit which would oblige (us) to go to the Security Council,” said Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign-policy chief, at a press conference in Tehran — barely two weeks after Iran's threat to quit the NPT.

The lingering European anger at Trump for his unilateral withdrawal is understandable. Their frustration over U.S. sanctions is rational — the restrictions deny European companies access to business worth tens of billions of euros in Iran. But their passivity in the face of Tehran's nuclear brinkmanship is dangerous. It signals to the regime that nuclear blackmail works.

The IAEA reports give the Europeans a face-saving way to extricate themselves from the corner into which they have painted themselves. They can now argue that penalizing Iran for its actions in no way endorses the Trump administration's behavior. There are no more excuses.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Bobby Ghosh is a columnist and member of the Bloomberg Opinion editorial board. He writes on foreign affairs, with a special focus on the Middle East and the wider Islamic world.

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