Danske Cuts 2022 Nordic GDP Forecasts on Supply, Labor Shortages
(Bloomberg) -- Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.
Danske Bank lowered forecasts for next year's economic growth across the Nordics, as supply chain constraints and labor shortages could impede the region's rebound.
“The lack of supply of materials and equipment is a limitation for many Nordic businesses,” Danske said in its Nordic Outlook report. “We expect these constraints to ease as global demand swings back towards services, but that process has been further delayed by the Omicron variant of Covid-19.”
At the same time, the bank noted that strong demand at home as well as abroad is boosting the growth of the Nordic economies, and believes the expansion will only be slightly slowed as governments impose new restrictions to curb an omicron-fueled surge in Covid cases.
DENMARK
- Danske now sees 2021 GDP growth of 3.8% versus previous forecast of 4.0%; 2022 growth outlook is lowered to 2.5% from 3.0% earlier
- 2023 growth seen at 1.7%
- The tight labor market is set to be “a dominant theme in the coming years,” as a pronounced upswing has almost drained available resources and wages look set to climb
- Still, says “a general overheating of the Danish economy similar to that prior to the financial crisis is a long way off”
SWEDEN
- 2021 calendar-adjusted GDP growth forecast is raised to 4.5% from previous forecast 3.9%; 2022 forecast is cut to 3.0% from 3.5%
- 2023 growth seen at 2.2%
- Danske notes that while growth has been stronger than expected, new Covid restrictions, continued supply chain problems and record-high electricity prices are near-term headwinds
NORWAY
- 2021 GDP growth is seen at 4.0% versus previous forecast 3.8%; 2022 forecast is lowered to 3.8% from 4.0%
- 2023 growth seen at 2.0%
- Says high capacity utilization means that growth in several sectors is being constrained from the supply side
- While rising infections and uncertainty about the new omicron variant have reduced mobility and led to new restrictions, this is mainly hitting hospitality and culture, which account for just 3% of the economy so the impact will be fairly limited
For Finland, Danske last month raised its growth forecast for 2021 to 3.5% from 3.3% seen previously, and lowered its estimate for 2022 to 2.8% from 3.0%.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
-
India's Troika Of Good Luck | Joining The Dots
A weaker Trump, a cooling AI trade and resilient earnings have put Indian markets back in favour. Rising inflation could spoil the party.
-
Talking Points This Week: Leadership Shock At Nvidia, Earnings Strength, And The Fog Over Hormuz
The Anthropic IPO pricing and first trading day, Nvidia's upcoming earnings, and any fresh signals from Iran will set the tone for the following week.
-
Signature Play: The Classic Cocktail Is Dead. Or Is It?
Classic cocktails are disappearing from India's cocktail menus. But they're still being ordered, taught to bartenders and borrowed from. So, who's really having the last drink?
-
A New Samvat Wishlist: Inclusive Prosperity And Human Development
India has strengthened its economic foundations through infrastructure, digital access and enterprise. Its next growth chapter must deepen productivity, create better livelihoods and widen participation in prosperity.
-
Love, Sex Aur Dhokha: The Audacious Plot To Spy On Jensen Huang
A Taipei dinner, a Singapore chip buyer and a suspected Chinese asset: inside the alleged spy operation that got close to NVIDIA's Jensen Huang.
-
Ten Things I Learnt This Samvat
Patience can be a trap. Cheap stocks can stay cheap. Leverage can wipe you out. What did Samvat 2082 teach us? Niraj Shah writes on 10 lessons from the year gone by.
-
Talking Points This Week: Tech Nerves, FII Buying, And A Faraway Banking Shock
The global markets are not shining this Diwali. The exception in the large markets is, India.
-
Midterm Rally Lasted A Day. The Hard Reality Of A Divided US May Last Two Years | Opinion
Between a contested AI boom, a debt ceiling that arrives in 2027 and a president with every incentive to act alone, the next two years may prove more volatile than the first day's rally suggests.
-
Blue Wave Will Derail the AI Trade but Won't Dismantle the AI Era | Unhedged Position
The Democrats' sweep of the US Congress will see politics collide with economic forces both over the long and short term.
-
It's Time To Take The GST Council's Bet On Trust Global
Payment records can prove India's services exports, and clear, proportionate rules can bring foreign digital sellers into the tax net.
