On May 8, 2015 Prime Minister Narendra Modi met media persons over an informal dinner at Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's residence. It was his second interaction with the media since his election as prime minister in 2014. At the meeting, journalists asked him about the possibility of a cabinet expansion. Modi replied that earlier, whenever he had reshuffled his cabinet as chief minister of Gujarat, the media found out about the changes only after a formal announcement was made, but on instances when the media speculated on it, the reshuffle never happened. The anecdote was meant to remind journalists that Modi was often a few steps ahead of them.
This time, journalists knew that a cabinet expansion was on the cards but the media had no idea that it was going to be of such magnitude – full of surprises, rewards, and punishment even. The expansion and reshuffle on Tuesday marks a big power shift, it also throws light on Modi's position on governance and on his political priorities.
The changes are very “Un-Delhi” in nature. People living in the republics of Lutyens Delhi and South Mumbai are struggling to understand what the prime minister has done in managing the republic of India. Let's try to make sense of Modi's moves.
1. The RSS imprint is visible all over the cabinet changes. Many of those inducted are RSS veterans. Smriti Irani's departure from, and Prakash Javadekar's entry into the human resources development (HRD) ministry are clear signs that RSS wants a committed yet rational minister in that position. Smriti's efforts to impress the RSS may have led her to adopt an aggressive stance on various issues – ranging from the Hyderabad University incident to the appointment of university vice chancellors. Many of these controversial moves were believed to be RSS' doing, but were, as BJP leaders tell me, Irani's independent actions. And though the current spin is that shifting her to the textiles ministry – a portfolio perceived to be less important – is to enable her involvement in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections, the real reason could likely be her temperament!
BJP insiders I spoke to say her move is also an illustration of Modi's leadership style. That Irani's departure is Modi way of admitting his error in handing her a portfolio as important as HRD.
2. There has also been much shock expressed over the exit of Jayant Sinha from the finance ministry, and the appointment of Santosh Gangwar (he was first elected to the Lok Sabha in 1989 and is known to be a committed party worker) and Arjun Ram Meghwal (former bureaucrat) as ministers of state, in the finance ministry. Neither Gangwar nor Meghwal may be well known to the media but they are senior leaders in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a strong base of supporters and proven track records of fulfilling party goals. Sinha's ouster may be a message that the finance ministry should worry less about investor sentiments, the Sensex equity index and super sensitive rating agencies. Instead ministry officials should focus on ‘Bharat' and push social welfare schemes vigorously. Especially Modi's pet schemes – Jan Dhan Yojana, JAM trinity plan (Jan-Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile), Mudra Bank Loan Scheme and Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Beema Yojana. Maybe Modi wants the finance ministry to be identified more with village folk than with suits.
Also Jayant Sinha's transfer is being seen as a demotion. But it may have been prompted more by the desire to include a Dalit leader in this crucial ministry, than by Sinha's actions. That explanation may seem puzzling but what's clear is that Sinha's ouster from finance is definitely not linked to his father and veteran BJP leader Yashwant Sinha's negative commentary on the NDA government's performance. In fact, some in the BJP also explain Sinha's move by suggesting that it was important to have an efficient BJP leader handle the civil aviation ministry which currently is headed by a senior leader, Ashok Gajapati Raju, from alliance partner TDP. Sinha's arrival in the civil aviation ministry may help promote privatisation and infrastructure building. We will have to wait to understand the exact reasons.
3. There have been two other significant changes which have not been discussed much yet. While Ravi Shankar Prasad lost the telecom portfolio, he got law and justice – a crucial ministry from the BJP point of view. Party leaders have often voiced their displeasure regarding how India's judiciary functions. Now, there is a second generation BJP man leading a ministry which has seen two different ministers in the last two years. Prasad is the third.
Similarly, BJP-RSS veteran Ananth Kumar was languishing in the chemicals and fertiliser ministry so far. Kumar, known not to be a Modi supporter, was appointed to the high-profile parliamentary affairs ministry as additional charge. Again, an RSS input, I hear.
Manoj Sinha and Anil Dave are two other examples of how low-key but dedicated workers with roots in the RSS are being rewarded. Telecom circles may be unfamiliar with Manoj Sinha but this politician from eastern UP has been given charge of a troubled sector. He knows Modi's priority – resolving the problem of frequent call drops and poor connectivity.
4. The biggest gainer in the cabinet reshuffle is BJP president Amit Shah. His inputs, meetings with would-be ministers a day before the swearing-in ceremony, and the fact that he was seated next to the prime minister during the swearing-in, are clear signals that his role and clout are growing. A shift in the balance of power has taken place within the BJP and the Sangh. The sole objective is to get a mega election campaign machine rolling ahead of the Uttar Pradesh elections and leading up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the coming days, we will see these new ministers, carefully chosen based on criteria like caste, performance and organisational skills, fanning out across the country to try and ensure for the BJP both state and national victories.
5. If there are any doubts about who the real Modi is, it should now be clear that he is a politician that leans left of centre and is often disposed towards socialism and povertarianism. This is what the new cabinet composition effectively conveys. And this, according to BJP leaders, is what it takes to win an election.
(Sanjay Pugalia is the Editorial Director of Quintillion Media)
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