(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden stands a 70.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 4 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.
- The model estimated Donald Trump's chances at 28.9%
- According to the Sept. 4 run of the model, Trump had a 16.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden's 83.4%
- The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 4. It is unchanged from Sept. 3
- Biden's national polling average reached 50.4% on Sept. 4 compared with 50.3% on Sept. 3
- These were the FiveThirtyEight's forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 4:
State Electoral Votes 2016 Winner Trump Poll Avg Biden Poll Avg Trump Win Chance Biden Win Chance Alabama 9 Trump 57.4% 38.4% 97.9% 2.1% Alaska 3 Trump 49.6% 45.0% 81.3% 18.7% Arizona 11 Trump 43.7% 48.9% 39.9% 60.1% Arkansas 6 Trump 47.0% 45.0% 93.7% 6.3% California 55 Clinton 30.8% 61.4% 0.2% 99.8% Colorado 9 Clinton 40.1% 52.3% 14.4% 85.6% Connecticut 7 Clinton 34.3% 53.8% 2.1% 97.9% Delaware 3 Clinton 38.4% 57.3% 0.3% 99.7% District of Columbia 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Florida 29 Trump 45.2% 48.8% 41.0% 59.0% Georgia 16 Trump 46.6% 45.7% 68.8% 31.2% Hawaii 4 Clinton 30.3% 56.8% 1.3% 98.7% Idaho 4 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 0.6% Illinois 20 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 99.4% Indiana 11 Trump 53.0% 38.4% 95.4% 4.6% Iowa 6 Trump 46.1% 45.1% 69.4% 30.6% Kansas 6 Trump 50.7% 41.0% 92.9% 7.1% Kentucky 8 Trump 55.1% 39.7% 97.7% 2.3% Louisiana 8 Trump 53.2% 39.3% 92.4% 7.6% Maine 4 Clinton 40.0% 50.7% 22.4% 77.6% Maryland 10 Clinton 35.1% 59.6% 0.2% 99.8% Massachusetts 11 Clinton 29.5% 63.6% 0.2% 99.8% Michigan 16 Trump 42.5% 49.6% 18.0% 82.0% Minnesota 10 Clinton 43.8% 50.3% 24.5% 75.5% Mississippi 6 Trump 53.6% 40.9% 87.7% 12.3% Missouri 10 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 90.1% 9.9% Montana 3 Trump 51.4% 43.2% 88.4% 11.6% Nebraska 5 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 1.4% Nevada 6 Clinton 41.1% 46.3% 22.1% 77.9% New Hampshire 4 Clinton 43.2% 50.8% 28.7% 71.3% New Jersey 14 Clinton 35.6% 54.1% 3.8% 96.2% New Mexico 5 Clinton 42.6% 53.3% 8.4% 91.6% New York 29 Clinton 33.2% 59.7% 0.2% 99.8% North Carolina 15 Trump 46.7% 48.7% 48.4% 51.6% North Dakota 3 Trump 55.9% 38.0% 98.8% 1.2% Ohio 18 Trump 47.2% 46.0% 61.2% 38.8% Oklahoma 7 Trump 58.4% 34.7% 99.3% 0.7% Oregon 7 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 91.4% Pennsylvania 20 Trump 45.1% 49.5% 31.5% 68.5% Rhode Island 4 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 98.5% South Carolina 9 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 87.8% 12.2% South Dakota 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 3.4% Tennessee 11 Trump 53.5% 40.1% 95.4% 4.6% Texas 38 Trump 47.1% 46.2% 74.3% 25.7% Utah 6 Trump 48.8% 36.2% 95.4% 4.6% Vermont 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 99.2% Virginia 13 Clinton 40.4% 51.1% 6.6% 93.4% Washington 12 Clinton 33.3% 58.8% 1.3% 98.7% West Virginia 5 Trump 64.6% 32.4% 99.3% 0.7% Wisconsin 10 Trump 42.7% 50.3% 25.7% 74.3% Wyoming 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% - These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight's poll database in the last 24 hours:
Pollster State or Federal Start Date End Date Sample Size Trump % Biden % Data for Progress Federal 9/1/20 9/1/20 695 42.8 53.0 Data for Progress Federal 9/1/20 9/1/20 759 44.0 51.6
NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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