(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden stands a 69.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 3 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 319 of 538 electoral votes.
- The model estimated Donald Trump's chances at 30.1%
- According to the Sept. 3 run of the model, Trump had a 17.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden's 82.4%
- The national polling average for Trump reached 42.8% on Sept. 3 compared with 42.8% on Sept. 2
- Biden's national polling average reached 50.3% on Sept. 3 compared with 50.4% on Sept. 2
- These were the FiveThirtyEight's forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 3:
State Electoral Votes 2016 Winner Trump Poll Avg Biden Poll Avg Trump Win Chance Biden Win Chance Alabama 9 Trump 57.4% 38.4% 98.0% 2.0% Alaska 3 Trump 49.6% 45.0% 81.5% 18.5% Arizona 11 Trump 43.7% 48.9% 41.1% 58.9% Arkansas 6 Trump 47.0% 45.0% 93.6% 6.4% California 55 Clinton 30.9% 61.3% 0.3% 99.7% Colorado 9 Clinton 40.1% 52.3% 14.7% 85.3% Connecticut 7 Clinton 34.3% 53.8% 2.1% 97.9% Delaware 3 Clinton 38.5% 57.3% 0.3% 99.7% District of Columbia 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Florida 29 Trump 44.7% 49.4% 40.2% 59.8% Georgia 16 Trump 46.6% 45.6% 68.7% 31.3% Hawaii 4 Clinton 30.3% 56.7% 1.4% 98.6% Idaho 4 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 0.6% Illinois 20 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% Indiana 11 Trump 53.0% 38.4% 95.3% 4.7% Iowa 6 Trump 46.2% 45.1% 69.8% 30.2% Kansas 6 Trump 50.7% 41.0% 93.0% 7.0% Kentucky 8 Trump 55.1% 39.7% 97.5% 2.5% Louisiana 8 Trump 53.2% 39.3% 92.6% 7.4% Maine 4 Clinton 40.1% 50.7% 23.1% 76.9% Maryland 10 Clinton 35.1% 59.6% 0.3% 99.7% Massachusetts 11 Clinton 29.5% 63.6% 0.3% 99.7% Michigan 16 Trump 42.5% 49.6% 18.7% 81.3% Minnesota 10 Clinton 43.7% 50.4% 25.3% 74.7% Mississippi 6 Trump 53.6% 40.8% 87.8% 12.2% Missouri 10 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 90.0% 10.0% Montana 3 Trump 51.4% 43.2% 88.6% 11.4% Nebraska 5 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 1.5% Nevada 6 Clinton 41.1% 46.3% 22.9% 77.1% New Hampshire 4 Clinton 43.2% 50.7% 29.5% 70.5% New Jersey 14 Clinton 35.6% 54.1% 3.8% 96.2% New Mexico 5 Clinton 42.7% 53.3% 8.8% 91.2% New York 29 Clinton 33.2% 59.7% 0.2% 99.8% North Carolina 15 Trump 46.5% 48.5% 50.0% 50.0% North Dakota 3 Trump 55.9% 38.0% 98.8% 1.2% Ohio 18 Trump 47.3% 46.0% 61.6% 38.4% Oklahoma 7 Trump 58.4% 34.6% 99.2% 0.8% Oregon 7 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 91.2% Pennsylvania 20 Trump 45.2% 49.1% 33.9% 66.1% Rhode Island 4 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 98.5% South Carolina 9 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 87.9% 12.1% South Dakota 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 3.4% Tennessee 11 Trump 53.5% 40.0% 95.3% 4.7% Texas 38 Trump 47.1% 46.2% 74.6% 25.4% Utah 6 Trump 48.8% 36.2% 95.4% 4.6% Vermont 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 99.1% Virginia 13 Clinton 40.4% 51.1% 6.9% 93.1% Washington 12 Clinton 33.3% 58.8% 1.3% 98.7% West Virginia 5 Trump 64.6% 32.4% 99.3% 0.7% Wisconsin 10 Trump 42.7% 50.3% 26.9% 73.1% Wyoming 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% - These major polls have been added to FiveThirtyEight's poll database in the last 24 hours:
Pollster, Sponsor State or Federal Start Date End Date Sample Size Trump % Biden % Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Arizona 8/29/20 9/1/20 772 likely voters 40.0 49.0 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Arizona 8/29/20 9/1/20 858 reg. voters 39.0 49.0 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research North Carolina 8/29/20 9/1/20 722 likely voters 46.0 50.0 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research North Carolina 8/29/20 9/1/20 804 reg. voters 45.0 49.0 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Wisconsin 8/29/20 9/1/20 801 likely voters 42.0 50.0 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research Wisconsin 8/29/20 9/1/20 853 reg. voters 41.0 49.0 Ipsos/Reuters Federal 8/28/20 9/1/20 1335 38.0 43.0
NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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