The Used Aston Martin Market Picks Up

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Aston Martin's owners are painfully accustomed to clutching at straws. Share of the British luxury carmaker fell as much as 57% in the wake of October's initial public offering. An agreement between two of its main shareholders to swap a 3% stake provides some tentative reasons for optimism.

On Monday, Investindustrial Advisors SpA, the Italian-owned private equity firm that owns about 31% of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc, said it may offer to buy seven million shares for 10 pounds ($13) apiece – against their IPO price of 19 pounds.

This isn't a takeover bid for the whole company, but the buyer would have to make the deal available to all shareholders given the move would enhance its already strong influence.

Kuwaiti investment funds that have a holding of a similar size have committed to accept. The shares were trading at 10.21 pounds on Monday. If the stock holds above the offer price, the Kuwaiti funds will likely be the only ones to tender.

It's a nifty piece of finance. The seller gets 6% more than the three-month volume-weighted average price for its shares. Placing them in the market would necessitate taking a discount. The downside is that the convoluted offer structure injects a delay and an element of uncertainty.

Both sides sold stock in Aston's IPO. The Kuwaitis have sold more since, and both sides were expected to exit fully in time. The Kuwaiti sale suggests a desire to avoid exposure to further declines in the share price. Investindustrial's position is harder to read. It may judge Aston to be good value at this level. Or it may be seeking to protect the value of its existing holding, conscious that another big investor is actively selling. Either way, the deal offers some needed technical support for the shares.

The question in the background is whether Aston could be the next poor performer on the stock market to get a takeover bid. From Axel Springer SE to Oriflame Holding AG to Merlin Entertainments Plc, the vogue is for a return to private ownership.

The snag is timing. The Aston investment case hinges on the launch of its new DBX sports utility vehicle, a car the maker claims will address the unmet need for an SUV that is both luxurious and beautiful. Shareholders may be loath to accept anything but a knockout bid before the DBX's success is clear. And once that happens, Aston may either be beyond reach – or untouchable.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Edward Evans at eevans3@bloomberg.net

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Chris Hughes is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering deals. He previously worked for Reuters Breakingviews, as well as the Financial Times and the Independent newspaper.

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