Abortion Poll Hints at More Democratic Energy Than GOP Over Roe

(Bloomberg) -- Abortion-rights supporters are more galvanized than opponents by the prospect of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, a new poll found, hinting at how a leaked draft opinion may shape the midterm elections.

The Morning Consult/Politico poll suggests Democrats are more likely to be energized by such a decision in a year where other factors -- historical trends, inflation and President Joe Biden's approval rating -- favor Republicans.

The poll is the first to gauge reaction to the draft opinion, first reported by Politico, that if adopted, would overturn the 49-year-old Supreme Court precedent and spark two dozen states to restrict or outlaw abortions.

It found that half of U.S. voters support the abortion rights guaranteed by Roe and don't want the Supreme Court to overturn the ruling.

About 42% of voters who lean Democratic -- and 45% of Democratic women -- said it's more important to vote for a candidate who agrees with their stance on abortion, even if they disagree on other issues. That number has increased by five points since last December.

Only 31% of Republican voters said abortion was more important in the midterm elections for Congress and other offices.

That trend reverses more than a decade of polling that showed Republicans have been more motivated by the abortion issue. Last year, Gallup found that 30% of self-described “pro-life” voters said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, compared to 19% of those who support abortion rights.

Both parties are seeking to motivate their base voters ahead of the midterms with control of the narrowly divided House and Senate up for grabs.

It's unclear how much opinions have calcified as a result of the leaked opinion. Though 59% said they heard of the draft opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito, only 26% said they thought it was “very likely” that the court would overturn Roe in the poll conducted the day after the draft was published. Last December, 12% said it was very likely the court would overturn Roe.

A Fox News poll released Tuesday and conducted last week -- before the leaked draft opinion was published -- found that 63% of voters support Roe. Still, that poll found conflicting opinions on the issue: Half the voters polled by Fox News say they would support their state banning abortions after six weeks -- a restriction that would be unconstitutional under the Roe v. Wade framework.

The Morning Consult poll of 1,955 registered voters was conducted Tuesday and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.